Saxobank has got the crystal ball out for 2015.

Saxobank has got the crystal ball out for 2015.

'Tis the season for outlooks, and amid the flood of worrying to outright gloomy forecasts for the coming year, Saxo Bank has once again flagged its most "outrageous predictions" for global markets.

Each year Saxo Bank analysts highlight 10 unrelated events that, should they come to pass, would have significant consequences for global markets.

While the annual list of controversial scenarios are unlikely, many have a habit of coming true, like the 2014 prediction that "Brent crude drops to $US80 per barrel as producers fail to reduce production."

"2015 will be a tough year, but potentially also the year we look back at as the low point in everything," said Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen.

Advertisement

"We saw a possible preview of coming attractions during one week of mayhem in October of 2014. If that's anything to go by, we are in for a roller-coaster ride in 2015."

These are this year's "outrageous predictions":

  1. UK housing prices fall as much as 25 per cent, following the impending Bank of England rate hike as momentum leaves the housing market.

  2. Japanese inflation hits 5 per cent as the Bank of Japan's incessant money printing crushes confidence in the yen - a sign of Japan losing control of its currency.


  3. China devalues the yuan by 20 per cent as deflationary risks loom, joining Japan in its fight to import inflation and demand.

  4. Mario Draghi quits the ECB to allow for full quantitative easing to continue under the hand of a new president, Jens Weidmann of Germany's Bundesbank. Draghi sets his sights on Italy, where President Napolitano requests that he succeed him.

  5. Large Russian companies or the government default on foreign debt as a result of plunging oil prices and a cold financial shoulder from Russia's geopolitical antagonists.

  6. Amazon.com suffers a decline of 50 per cent due to overvaluation and the widespread fallout to the e-commerce industry.

  7. The already active Icelandic volcano Bardarbunga erupts, leading to a massive release of gases that cloud the skies over Europe. Despite a more modest fallout than expected, grain prices double amid fears of a weak harvest across Europe.

  8. Demand for chocolate continues to rise and the world consumes far more cocoa than it is producing, leading to record high prices of more than $US5000 per tonne.


  9. The UK Independence Party (UKIP) wins 25 per cent of the national vote in Britain's general election in May and joins David Cameron's Conservatives in a coalition government. It calls for the planned referendum on Britain's membership of the EU in 2017 as UK government debt suffers a sharp rise in yields.

  10. High-yield corporate bond spreads double and shock waves shake Europe's weak economy.The Market iTraxx Europe Crossover doubles to 700 basis points.