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Posted: 2018-04-25 14:06:10

St George senior economist Janu Chan said that in the medium term, inflation would fall short of the middle of the RBA's target band.

"There are some upward price pressures domestically, including utilities, education and healthcare," she said. "However, ongoing spare capacity in the labour market, slow wage growth and the persistent downward pressure on certain goods thanks to intense competition suggests that price pressures will remain muted."

ANZ senior economist Jo Masters says stronger wage growth is needed to increase inflationary pressures in the economy.

"With retail prices expected to continue to drag, a lift in inflationary pressures likely requires stronger wage growth to push domestic services inflation higher," she said. "We expect wage growth to lift gradually, and for that to feed through to inflation over time."

Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk was was more optimistic, predicting that inflation could lift to inside the RBA's target band by year's end, and predicts that during 2018 inflation will peak at 2.4 per cent before easing back to 2.1 per cent by the end of the year.

That supports the mainstream view that the RBA's cash rate is likely to remain on hold until at least the end of the year, if not well into 2019. The implied cash rate in 12 months' time has retreated to 1.68 per cent in the wake of the March CPI result, meaning the prospect of a single hike to 1.75 per cent within the next year is not priced by the market. The RBA meets next on Tuesday when it is expected to keep rates on hold at 1.5 per cent.

Kate Hickie, economist from Capital Economics, forecasts the RBA will keep rates at 1.5 per cent until late 2019 as GDP growth and inflation remain weaker than the central bank expects.

"We doubt that economic conditions will be strong enough to warrant a rate rise soon. We expect that GDP growth will rise only marginally this year, from 2.3 per cent in 2017 to just 2.5 per cent, as a slowing housing market and low wage growth hold back dwellings investment and consumption. That would be well below the RBA's previously published growth forecast and is likely to be below the RBA's updated forecast, too."

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