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Posted: Fri, 13 Apr 2018 05:32:01 GMT

WINX and Black Caviar, the mighty mares who became winning machines, are the closest racing has ever had to a certainty.

Black Caviar was never beaten, winning all her 25 races. Winx lost six of her first 10 starts before she started her winning streak which stretches three years and 24 races in succession.

Sydney’s super mare can equal Black Caviar’s record for consecutive wins in the Group 1 $4 million Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

IS WINX THE GREATEST RACEHORSE OF ALL TIME?

BOWMAN: ‘IT IS GOING TO ONE HELLUVA RACE’

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Black Caviar was retired after winning the 2013 TJ Smith Stakes at Randwick, establishing a record most thought would stand the test of time but just five years later, Winx is poised to equal that standard.

Winx is at $1.15 with TAB Fixed Odds to win the richest race of the Sydney autumn carnival on Saturday. The short odds hasn’t deterred one fearless punter from having $124,500 at $1.18 on the champion mare to maintain her winning momentum on Saturday.

With TAB Fixed Odds alone just over $25 million has been wagered on Winx in her career, forcing the TAB to pay out a staggering $36.3 million.

Punters invested just over $12 million on Black Caviar through TAB Fixed Odds during her unbeaten career, resulting in $14.2 million being paid out.

For most punters, Winx is too short to back on Saturday. But with the benefit of hindsight, if a punter placed $10 on Winx to win at the start of her streak and then rolled it over every start since, they would now have $237,448.10.

The longest odds the mighty mare has been during her winning streak was $4.20 on TAB Fixed Odds in the 2015 Cox Plate, while the shortest was $1.08 in the 2016 George Main Stakes. She has been odds on (under $2) in 19 of her wins.

“Hindsight, especially in punting, is a wonderful thing but I don’t think anyone would have imagined that Winx couldb have racked up such an impressive winning streak after being beaten so often early on in her career,” TAB’s Andrew Georgiou said.

“The horses that beat her early on were top performers in their own right — First Seal, Fenway and Gust Of Wind all got the better of Winx when she was a three-year-old.

“The turning point was really during the Sunshine Coast Guineas in May 2015 when she stormed over the top of them from near last.”

By way of comparison, if a punter invested $10 on Black Caviar when she made her race debut and let the winnings ride every start of her unbeaten 25-start career, the punter would have $3567.30.

Black Caviar started at $3 when she won her race debut as a two-year-old by five lengths at Flemington in April, 2009 — and looking back now you wonder how she started at such luxury odds!

Bookies never let Black Caviar under their guard after that initial win and the champion started odds on for her next 24 starts. The shortest she started was $1.02 when she won the 2012 Australia Stakes and she started at less than $1.20 in her final 16 races.

WINX’S ODDS OF HER WINNING STREAK

$1.08 2016 George Main Stakes

$1.09 2018 Chipping Norton Stakes

$1.09 2017 Chelmsford Stakes

$1.10 2017 Warwick Stakes

$1.12 2017 Queen Elizabeth Stakes

$1.12 2017 George Main Stakes

$1.15 2017 Apollo Stakes

$1.16 2018 George Ryder Stakes

$1.18 2017 Cox Plate

$1.20 2017 Turnbull Stakes

$1.22 2017 Chipping Norton Stakes

$1.24 2016 Caulfield Stakes

$1.24 2017 George Ryder Stakes

$1.26 2016 Warwick Stakes

$1.35 2016 Chipping Norton Stakes

$1.60 2016 Apollo Stakes

$1.75 2016 Doncaster Mile

$1.80 2016 Cox Plate

$1.90 2016 George Ryder Stakes

$2 2015 Queensland Oaks

$2.65 2015 Sunshine Coast Guineas

$2.90 2015 Epsom

$3.60 2015 Theo Marks Stakes

$4.20 2015 Cox Plate

WINX BETTER THAN BLACK CAVIAR IN THE EYES OF THE PUNTER

Punters with TAB have collected 155 per cent more on Winx than they did in Black Caviar’s career.

TAB has paid out $36.3 million, just on Fixed Odds, during Winx’s career, compared with $14.4 million during Black Caviar’s.

$25 million has been wagered on Winx since her debut at Warwick Farm in June 2014, over double the $12.4 million bet on Black Caviar.

“It’s amazing to think our customers have invested twice as much on Winx than Black Caviar but when you look at the returns you see why,” TAB’s Glenn Munsie said.

“A number of people would have backed Black Caviar at very, very short odds with the main aim being keeping the ticket as a piece of memorabilia rather than the prospect of making any money.

“She was so short so often compared to the prices that Winx has started due to the races she ran in and the smaller fields that took her on.

“Winx, on the other hand, has contested more open races but also took a long while to totally dominate her opposition in the same type of races Black Caviar contested throughout her career.

“Winx has proven to be a money making machine not only for her owners but any punter that has supported her at any stage of her 24-run winning streak.”

Winx has only started $1.10 or shorter on four occasions, while Black Caviar was $1.10 or shorter in 11 of her starts.

Winx v Black Caviar wagering comparison

Money wagered: $25,084,031 on Winx, $12,383,803 on Black Caviar

Money paid out: $36,367,574 on Winx, $14,284,295 on Black Caviar

TRIPLE CROWN

Randwick, Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Winx — racing is hoping for a royal procession.

ANALYSIS BY LEO SCHLINK

$4m QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)

Royal Randwick, Saturday, Race 7 (3.05pm)

1 HAPPY CLAPPER Pat Webster — Kerrin McEvoy 9 59kg $16

2 GAILO CHOP Darren Weir — Mark Zahra 5 59kg $15

3 HUMIDOR Darren Weir — Blake Shinn 1 59kg $12

4 AMBITIOUS Anthony Freedman — Craig Williams 7 59kg $34

5 SUCCESS DAYS Ken Condon — Joao Moreira 8 59kg $34

6 CLASSIC UNIFORM Gary Moore — Andrew Adkins 4 59kg $151

7 COMIN’ THROUGH Chris Waller — Michael Walker 2 59kg $41

8 ODEON Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra — Damian Lane 6 59kg $101

9 WINX Chris Waller — Hugh Bowman 10 57kg $1.15

10 CONSENSUS Stephen McKee — Jason Collett 3 57kg $126

LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

THE FACTORS

TRACK: Good 4. RAIL: Out 3m

FORECAST: Possible shower. 28C

THE SKINNY

HAPPY CLAPPER

In career-best form but seven tilts at Winx have yielded seven successive defeats. Loves Randwick where the bulk of his wins have materialised, but he’s yet to win beyond 1600m. Finished 7.7 lengths behind Winx in this race last year on soft ground. Will relish firmer going on Saturday but will need everything in his favour to upstage the champ.

GAILO CHOP

Two Cox Plates cracks at Winx have delivered sound defeats but he has never gone better. The drop from 2400m to his pet 2000m trip, where he has posted seven wins, is an obvious plus. Will roll along either in the lead or just off the speed and make his own luck.

HUMIDOR

Stretched Winx when a narrow second in the Cox Plate in October when the super mare broke her own race record to prevail. Uncomfortable inside runners in last week’s Doncaster when eighth. Much will depend on quirky Humidor’s mood and Blake Shinn’s ability to get off the fence early. Crushing Australian Cup win over this trip last year.

AMBITIOUS

Twice victorious over 2000m, including career-best win over Japanese superstar Kitasan Black on firm ground a year ago. Has had two runs in Australia for Anthony Freedman for an Australian Cup ninth and rallying second to Almandin in the 2400m Tancred. X-factor runner.

SUCCESS DAYS

Chased home Melbourne Cup runner-up Johannes Vermeer over 2016m at The Curragh in July but failed to fire in two most recent outings — both at Group 1 level — finishing last on both occasions. Has Joao Moreira but would need a career best

CLASSIC UNIFORM

Boasts a win over Happy Clapper over this track and distance but was well held by Winx in the Chipping Norton. Likely leader.

COMIN’ THROUGH

Flying with Ajax Stakes triumph and then second to Happy Clapper in the Doncaster. Half-brother to 2016 QE Stakes winner Criterion but yet to win beyond 1600m.

ODEON

Deserves a crack at the big time and gets it here. Competitive at Group 1 level in Melbourne but this is a quantum leap. Will likely roll forward again.

WINX

Widest gate, history beckoning and faced with a host of class rivals, is this Winx’s most serious challenge? Hugh Bowman certainly thinks so, declaring the quest for a 25th straight victory the wonder mare’s toughest assignment since her first Cox Plate success in 2015. The punters — and most form students — are unconcerned. Only a mammoth upset stands between Winx and a world record 18th Group 1.

CONSENSUS

Group 1 winner over 2000m in NZ but winless at her past 11 — not the recipe, barring a huge reversal, to succeed here.

THE SPEED

CLASSIC UNIFORM, GAILO CHOP and ODEON are all likely roll forward to control the tempo. COMIN’ THROUGH, HAPPY CLAPPER and AMBITIOUS will sit handy, while Hugh Bowman’s positioning of WINX will be determined by the pace. If they walk, he’ll attempt to sit close. If there’s a decent clip, he’ll be content to ride conservatively.

HISTORY SAYS

— Winx aims to join Tulloch (1958, 1960, 1961), Intergaze (1997, 1999) and Grand Armee (2004, 2005) as a multiple winner of the race.

— Winx has lost only once over 2000m — three years ago at Rosehill in the Vinery Stakes — The great mare boasts an overall record of six wins from seven starts at the 2000m trip.

— For the first time in 18 starts, Winx jumps from a double-figure gate — barrier 10 — having won this race from the three alley last year.

LEO SCHLINK SELECTS

1. WINX

2. Ambitious

3. Humidor

4. Gailo Chop

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