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Posted: Thu, 23 Nov 2017 07:36:56 GMT

MORE than 93,000 new units have been slated for construction across Melbourne in the next two years.

But a leading property data firm has tipped we will see less and less of them getting off the ground.

CoreLogic figures show 33,244 new unit commencements are projected for the next 12 months, and 93,477 for the next two years — adding more than 14 per cent to the number of units already in the city.

The majority would be built within 10km of the CBD, most of them apartments.

However CoreLogic senior data analyst Cameron Kusher said he doesn’t believe they will all be built as banks look to the amount of new homes being built in the city and reconsider the risk of financing them.

“Increasingly, we will see more of the projects not actually commence, or take longer to commence,” Mr Kusher said.

“Really what it’s (the projected volume) measuring is potential supply over the next couple of years.

“(And) it’s something the banking fraternity would use the data to assess risk for units.”

Mr Kusher added that even the estimates of new builds coming through had fallen, with construction of more than 100,000 units forecast over two year periods in Melbourne’s recent history.

“Even though approvals have started to fall away, there’s still an awful lot that’s coming on to the market for completion in the next couple of years,” Mr Kusher said.

But local industry proponents have tipped a population boom will drive the majority of new developments in the city to completion.

Project marketing specialist Castran Gilbert’s Mark Forytarz said a certain number would be delayed or struggle with the new apartment guidelines.

But with more than 140,000 new residents in Victoria in the latest population data, there would be plenty of demand for units in all areas.

“Melbourne is the fastest growing city in the country,” Mr Forytarz said.

“And it’s just fundamental that those people have to live somewhere.”

He added that downsizers were increasingly opting for apartment lifestyles, and a growing number of Generation Y buyers were turning their back on the traditional affordable housing markets on the city’s fringe in favour of smaller homes and apartments closer to town.

“And another big factor is that we have interstate buyers coming,” Mr Forytarz said. “Particularly Sydney buyers, who see Docklands as a growth area as they equate it with Darling Harbour.”

Urban Development Institute of Australia Victorian chief executive Danni Addison echoed his thoughts.

“Despite the broadbrush, misconstrued claims of oversupply, the numbers show we’re simply not building enough new housing to meet the demands of the population growth we’re seeing here in Melbourne,” Ms Addison said.

“Given the market conditions in Melbourne, which includes strong population growth and weakening supply, there are a number of factors telling us that the cost of various forms of housing across the market will experience strong price growth.”

She added that property purchases should always be considered a long-term investment.

However, Mr Kusher advised buyers might want to factor the information in before making a purchase.

“The average punter in the street needs to factor in that if they are going to buy a unit, there’s an awful lot out there,” he said.

“So make sure you buy something unique. And remember that it (the volume) could have an impact on your property — especially if there is discounting of property values to get sales.”

Larger units, those with three or four bedrooms, and those that were a bit more unique would have different experience to more common, smaller abodes, Mr Kusher said.

“The performance will be different depending on the type of property bought,” he said.

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