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The allure of the deal for both of the aspiring buyers lies in the dramatic increase in scale, diversity and negotiating heft the acquisition would give them in the US, along with the international pay TV presence the Sky businesses in India, the UK, Ireland, Germany, Italy and Spain would provide.
Reed Hastings, chief executive of Netflix.
Photo: BloombergUnder increasing pressure from the streaming services like Netflix and Amazon, both Disney and Comcast see Fox as the only available large-scale solution to their challenges.
Success for Disney would make it the world’s largest media company and give it a lot more leverage in negotiating carriage fees with distributors. For Comcast, which owns the NBC network and Universal studios but is still predominantly a distribution company, not only would it create an international presence but it would reduce its reliance on distribution at a time when "cutting the cord’’ and switching to "over-the-top’’ services threatens its traditional business.
The fact that a successful acquisition by Comcast would stop Disney from gaining the leverage in negotiations over content is a benefit one suspects Comcast wouldn’t be keen to highlight.
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The fight for control of the Fox assets is already messy.
Earlier this year Comcast intervened in Murdoch’s latest attempt to buy out the minorities in Fox’s 39 per cent-owned Sky Plc. Fox, whose previous attempt at acquiring full ownership of the pay TV business in 2012 was derailed by the phone-hacking scandal, has bid £19 billion ($33.5 billion) for the 61 per cent it doesn’t own. It finally received clearance for that bid last week, albeit with the proviso that it divests Sky News.
In effect, Fox was pursuing the bid on behalf of Disney, presumably because that was the cleanest and most tax-efficient way of acquiring Sky.
Comcast, however, has offered £22 billion ($38.8 billion) for Sky, which means that if Disney’s deal with Fox stands up - whether because Comcast isn’t allowed to compete or because it is allowed but Disney prevails - there could still be a fight, and potentially some form of carve-up or joint venturing, of Sky.
It is also feasible, if the prospect of an anti-trust obstacle disappears, that there could be a larger distribution of the Fox assets between them. The Murdochs would presumably be only too willing to help facilitate a truce that produced an even more lucrative outcome for them and other Fox shareholders.
The failure of 21st Century Fox’s attempt to acquire Time Warner produced a watershed moment for Murdoch in what had been a life-long pursuit of ambition of creating the dominant global media group.
The attempt was spurred by the realisation that the dramatic growth in the streaming services – and the sheer scale and market value of the ‘’FAANGs’’ – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google - meant there was a need to either get a lot bigger or look to exit. The smallest of those players, Netflix, has a market capitalisation of about $US157 billion - more than twice Fox’s $US74 billion.
Whether or not Comcast is set free by the AT&T/Time Warner judgment to counter the Disney offer, Murdoch has already made the big and pragmatic decision to cash out the core of the empire he spent a lifetime building.
It’s not, however, a complete exit.
The Murdochs will hold about 4.4 per cent of Disney if that deal goes ahead and retain their control of the Fox News channel, some sports rights and free-to-air stations.
Those assets fit quite neatly with, and might eventually end up being backed back into, the business that originally incubated them, the quite separate and largely (except for the Foxtel business in Australia) print-based News Corporation.
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