The Australian dollar fell back below 80 US cents overnight, and experts are warning an extended stint in the 70s is looming. 

It's worth remembering that last July the dollar was trading at US95¢. On Saturday morning it was hovering around 79 US cents, its lowest mark since July 2009. With the Reserve Bank likely to cut interest rates in February or March, it is predicted the dollar is poised to book a long stay in the 70s.

In a nutshell, a dollar valued in the 70s instead of the 90s is good for exporters and not so good for importers. Travel-wise, it's cheaper for people travelling to Australia and more expensive for people travelling overseas.

It's not certain that the dollar will head lower. The spread of predictions from a recent Bloomberg survey of economists ranged from US70¢ to US92¢ for the end of 2015, with an average figure of US78¢.

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AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said he agreed with the lower end, predicting the dollar would be worth US75¢ by year's end.

"Many economists are thinking, well, the dollar's had a big fall and we'll stabilise," he said.

"But I think that's unlikely. I think the most likely scenario is we'll continue to head down, reflecting the weakness in commodity prices."

Any sector of the economy that exported – higher education, agriculture, manufacturing, mining – would benefit, he said. Local tourism would benefit from as overseas tourists would have increased spending power in Australia.

Some retailers would benefit, he said – goods on overseas websites would become more expensive, making local retail more competitive. But retailers selling imported stock would be paying more. Companies relying on imported inputs, such as machinery and equipment, would be paying a lot more than they were in July.

"It's not very good for companies that rely on imports ...  [they] may suffer and households feel the pain in that sense," he said. "It's good for household income because there are  more jobs around but it's not so good for the household budget because import prices go up ... the pain from a lower Australian dollar is really in the household sector."

But the higher household bill for imported goods had been offset by the plummeting price of oil. "That slump in the weekly petrol bill is going to more than offset any boost to household prices that may flow from a lower Australian dollar."

Late in 2014, Credit Suisse compiled a list of 39 companies that would be hardest hit by a falling dollar and a list of 38 companies least affected by a falling dollar. The list used historical data to determine the sensitivities of a stock to changes in the exchange rate.

Childcare operators G8 Education, Kathmandu, Graincorp and Leighton Holdings were the companies most adversely affected by a falling Australian dollar. Companies that sell a lot of imported stock – JB HiFi, Harvey Norman and the Reject Shop – also featured prominently. Job site Seek, carsales.com.au, goldminer Evolution Mining, and financial stocks Bank of Queensland, AMP and ANZ also featured.

Resources companies like Newcrest, Alumina and Bluescope Steel all benefitted from a falling dollar. Non-resources companies that benefitted included Cabcharge, Myer, Ten Network, and information storage business Recall Holdings.

Flight Centre spokesman Haydn Long said Australian tourism would benefit. "It's not bad for inbound tourism because it means Australia's a bit more affordable than what it was previously.

"In terms of outbound tourism I don't think it will make too much of an impact. Cheap airfares tends to be the thing that excites most people about travel and airfares are pretty cheap. We've got Virgin today lowering its US fares.

"People tend to view the exchange rate as something that they can adjust to. They just downgrade their prices if they're concerned about the dollar or upgrade their plans if the dollar is working in their favour."

The executive director of the Australian Retailers' Association, Russell Zimmerman, said online Australian retailers would benefit the most. "It's going to make online retailing in Australia more attractive compared to overseas. People will be more likely to buy online than from overseas. That's the good news," he said.

However, retailers that imported goods would be faced with higher costs – although it may take a while before they were passed on to consumers. "If you were looking at the clothing and footwear sector ... there will be some cost increases. But it may take a season or so before you see any changes. Other importers may have price increases earlier than that. Retailers will have to increase their prices in the long term because the cost of purchasing these goods will go up." 

Chief executive of the National Farmers' Federation, Simon Talbot, welcomed the lower dollar. "Ultimately it'll make us more competitive on a global market, so we're positive about that," he said. "It will impact anyone buying capital – a large percentage of our capital does come from overseas – but at face value it's good for our commodities. Particularly with Asian markets opening up in China, Japan and Korea."