THE Australian housing market is heading into the end of the year with “substantial momentumâ€, but faces a geographical shift in 2015.
“While values are still rising at a healthy rate, at least at a high level and in trend terms, we anticipate that 2015 will see the housing market dynamic shift geographically,†Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic RP Data, said today.
Dwelling values in November were 8.5 per cent higher than a year earlier, but the momentum has eased after the annual growth rate peaked at 11.5 per cent in April,†he said.
Here is a summary of his outlook for the capital city housing markets.
BUSINESSNOW: Cheapest and dearest suburbs
CHINA: Housing prices continue to fall
* SYDNEY: Growth of 12.5 per cent likely for 2014 after peaking at 16.7 per cent in April 2013.
Trend to “more sustainable†rises should continue into 2015 amid affordability constraints, low rental yields and investment lending restrictions imposed on banks.
* MELBOURNE: Annual growth peaked in January at 11.5 per cent before slowing to an expected 8 per cent in 2014 and even slower in 2015. Investor demand will be dampened by low rental yields and restricted finance. New supply in inner city and outer fringes will also slow price rises.
* BRISBANE: Capital gains in 2014 will accelerate to near 7 per cent from 5.1 per cent in 2013. Growth stayed firm in late 2014 and with fewer affordability pressures and high rental yields. The market should outperform the capital city average in 2015.
* ADELAIDE: Capital gains should be lift to about 3.5 per cent in 2014 from 2.8 per cent in 2013, despite economic uncertainties. Rising transaction numbers show strong demand, affordability pressures are tame and rental yields are high. A modest rise, but no surge, likely in 2015.
* PERTH: Annual growth peaked at 9.9 per cent in December 2013 before slowing to about 1 per cent through 2014. Slower population growth, large numbers of house-building approvals and the weakening WA economy mean a persistent weak trend in prices, which may end 2015 lower.
* HOBART: The weakest market since the 2008 financial crisis but conditions are improving with transaction numbers rising sharply, affordability “remarkable†compared with other capitals and rental yields high. Price growth though 2014 estimated at about 6 per cent amid rising demand from lifestyle buyers, with a moderate rising trend to continue in 2015.
*DARWIN: Dwelling values trended lower through late 2014, with annual growth around 1.5 per cent. Growth prospects are diminishing as big infrastructure projects wind down. Rental yields are high but investor demand should taper in line with price growth.
CANBERRA: Dwelling values are likely to have fallen by 1 per cent through the second half of 2014. Worries over government job cuts and potential housing oversupply point to flat or falling prices in 2015.
OUTSIDE THE CAPITALS: Lifestyle markets should continue their bounce back but markets in resource intensive regions will be hurt by lower commodity prices and less mining related infrastructure spending.
CoreLogic RP Data also crunched the numbers to find out the biggest rises in housing prices around Australia.
And it turns out that the fastest rise, measured over the year to September, was in the Sydney suburb of Mays Hill, near the Parramatta CBS, where the median price of a house rose by a whopping 48.8 per cent.