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A late recovery was not enough to lift the Australian sharemarket above water after a slump in consumer confidence and uncertainty about the impact of tighter regulation governing mortgage lending standards on bank shares pushed the market lower in the morning. Strong gains in the big miners limited losses.
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.5 per cent to 5259 points while the broader All Ordinaries Index fell 0.4 per cent to 5237.1 points. Meanwhile the dollar lifted to US83.20¢ at the market close, but remains around four-and-a-half year lows.
Local shares took a shaky lead from global markets after Chinese stocks reversed recent gains and Greek stocks suffered there biggest single day plunge in 25 years on Tuesday night.
In China on Wednesday , the Shanghai Composite Index moved higher in the afternoon as the government released softer than expected inflation numbers fuelling speculation of further monetary easing.
“A lot of nations, including Australia, may resort to more economic stimulus in 2015,†Fiducian managing director Indy Singhsaid.
“Ultimately the recent oil price slump will be good for global growth and help share markets, including the ASX, push higher by the end of next year. But it will be a rocky road with a lag time before lower energy prices flow through to increased demand,†Mr Singh said.
Domestic investor sentiment took a hit as a closely watched monitor of consumer sentiment sunk to its lowest level in more than three years. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.7 per cent in December to 91.1 points .
In retail, Woolworths lost 1.4 per cent to $29.88, while Wesfarmers, owner of Coles, dropped 2.1 per cent to $41.73.
St George Bank economists shifted their interest rate expectations from preparing for a rate hike in 2015 to a forecast for rates to remain on hold.
Bank stock investors are digesting Tuesday’s twin attack from APRA and ASIC on residential mortgage lending standards.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia rallied in the afternoon to post a gain of 0.4 per cent at $82.35, while the rest of the big four banks closed lower. Westpac Banking Corporation lost 1.6 per cent to $32.52, ANZ Banking Group shed 1.2 per cent to $31.49, and National Australia Bank dipped 0.9 per cent to $32.30.
Most analysts are confident the increased regulatory scrutiny is unlikely to pose any threat to the major banks.
And here are the movers and shakers today.
The best are a few beaten-up iron ore miners coming up briefly for air but it's mostly gold miners enjoying the silver lining from the current cloud hanging over global sharemarkets.
Energy shares had another tough day. Primary Healthcare dropped 6 per cent as investors digest the latest version of the GP co-payment proposal.
TPG Telecom and iiNet fell as Telstra got some good news on their NBN deal (see post at 11:28), while Premier Investments felt the pinch of a "disturbing" reading of consumer sentiment (see post at 10:30).
Best and worst performing stocks in the ASX 200 today.
Shares partially recovered from a steep early fall after CBA reversed early losses, limiting the damage inflicted by its big bank peers, but that and a solid bounce in the miners wasn't enough to pull the local market into the black.
The ASX 200 dropped 24 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 5259, while the All Ords lost 21 points to end at 5237.1.
Banks did most of the damage, with Westpac down 1.6 per cent, ANZ 1.2 per cent and NAB 0.9 per cent after APRA suggested lenders might like to curb their investment housing loans or face higher capital charges. CBA added 0.4 per cent. Macquarie dropped 1.6 per cent.
Energy stocks followed the oil price lower, but Woodside staged a solid turnaround to end 1.5 per cent higher.
Miners were the standout, as Rio gained 1.6 per cent and BHP rallied off multi-year lows to add 1.7 per cent.
CSL led the healthcare sector lower, down 2.9 per cent.
Regional markets are mostly lower today, with Tokyo leading the way down:
- Japan (Nikkei): -2.4%
- Hong Kong: -0.2%
- China (Shanghai): +0.4%
- China (Shenzhen): +2.1%
- Taiwan: -1.1%
- Koea: -1.2%
- ASX200: -0.3%
- Singapore: +0.25%
- New Zealand: -0.35%
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‘‘Caution is probably at the top of the agenda,’’ says Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager at Pengana Capital. ‘‘As some investors change asset allocations, we will see some extreme moves over the next couple of weeks.’’
Analysts have been - as ever - busily upgrading and downgrading their recommendations over the past month, and with so much going in we thought we'd look at the stocks where the consensus call has changed by the most over four weeks - see chart below.
The consensus rating is: 5= buy, 4=weak buy, 3=hold, 2=weak sell, 1=strong sell.
So which companies are the most popular among the analyst community? Four among the All Ords score a perfect score of '5' - a unanimous "strong buy". They are: the $65m-market cap energy management services business Energy Action Ltd, Altium, copper-gold explorer Hillgrove Resources and tin, nickel and gold play Metals X. Earning close to that score (4.9) are Sundance Energy and Drillsearch.
Least popular? Scoring 1.5 are Kingsgate Consolidated and Boart Longyear, with former market darling Xero a 1.7. Cochlear scores 1.8.
Here are the stocks that have been gaining/losing popularity the most among analysts over the past month, where the consensus rating is: 5= buy, 4=weak buy, 3=hold, 2=weak sell, 1=strong sell.
Oil trading 'god' ... Andrew Hall
How does a renowned oil trader who bets on rising prices make money when crude plunges 18 per cent in a month? By betting on the US dollar at the same time.
Andrew Hall, revered for anticipating major swings in the market, posted a 1 per cent gain in his commodity hedge fund in November, Bloomberg quotes people familiar with the matter.
Hall, who is leaving his longtime post as chief executive of Phibro, the century-old commodities trading house now owned by Occidental Petroleum, sees oil falling further as he focuses on his private fund.
The surprise rise at 64-year-old Hall’s Astenbeck Capital Management was driven by his bets on the greenback and a move to sell out of crude contracts before the worst of the rapid decline in prices, according to the people and his letters to investors in the $US3 billion fund.
A prolific art collector and Oxford University graduate, Hall is revered as a “god†by rival traders, according to “Oil,†a 2010 book by Tom Bower. Known for his conviction that oil prices will rise in the long term and that US shale drilling is overhyped, Hall still sees reasons for an oil rally - eventually.
First he sees crude prices falling further to as low as $US50 a barrel before recovering in the first half of next year, according to his December 1 letter to investors.
“As the oil industry and, more to the point, its investors and its lenders slam on the brakes and as low prices stimulate demand growth, the current glut will in time disappear - if not turn into a future shortage,†he wrote in his letter. “That at least is what the Saudis are counting on, and to us it appears a reasonable bet.â€
The former trader for BP anticipated oil’s rise to a record in 2008, and its subsequent fall, helping him land compensation near $US100 million for three straight years.
Credit Suisse oil and gas analysts are calling for Santos to tap equity markets for at least $2 billion, as the weakness in the oil price shows no sign of abating.
The team, led by analyst Mark Samter, says the Adelaide-based company’s funds from operations will begin to tumble from 2018 unless it allocates capital to new projects. But with the Brent Crude price plunging more than 40 per cent over the past four months to $66 a barrel, new exploration projects are looking doubtful.
Credit Suisse suggests a raising may only be dilutive for Santos compared to broker consensus net present value estimates, rather than a “more prudent realityâ€.
The investment bank has been particularly bearish on Santos, declaring last week the company needed at least a $1 billion equity injection to remain investment-grade in 2018 and up to $4 billion if it wants a BBB+ credit rating.
Santos said it wants to keep its investment grade rating, which affects the rates at which it can raise debt. The company has announced plans to cut costs next year and may also implement an underwritten dividend reinvestment plan.
Credit agency Standard & Poor’s this week slashed its credit rating for Santos to BBB/negative outlook from BBB+/negative outlook, primarily because of a “severe decline in oil pricesâ€.
AFR's Street Talk revealed bankers are working hard to convince the David Knox-led oil and gas player to shore up its balance sheet.
Chief financial officer Andrew Seaton insists Santos has a robust funding position, with an available $2 billion to call on. But Santos has lost over one-third of its value in two weeks, closing on Tuesday at a 10-year low of $7.70 amid worries an equity raising may still be round the corner.
Will Santos need to raise cash? Credit Suisse says the battered oil and gas major should aim for a $2 billion cash injection.
St George has put one foot into the growing camp of monetary policy doves, predicting the RBA will remain on hold all of next year.
But the bank's economists weren't prepared to go all out and predict a rate cut early next year, like their colleagues at the Westpac mothership, who last week said they are now expecting a rate cut double whammy in February and March.
"The record low cash rate is having a positive impact on economic activity, however, the pace of growth remains below trend," St George chief economist Besa Deda says in a note to clients this afternoon.
"It now seems unlikely that growth will gather sufficient pace during 2015 to warrant lifting the cash rate," Deda says, adding: "The risk of a cut in the cash rate has also increased."
Rates on hold for longer plus weaker commodity prices also imply a weaker dollar, says the bank, which now predicts the Aussie to fall to 75 US cents by the end of next year, down from an earlier prediction of 82 US cents.
China's steel and iron ore production is recovering after anti-pollution curbs imposed ahead of a global summit in Beijing early last month, but we haven’t seen this cycle's lows yet, Citi says.
"More pain is expected in January, February and beyond. Underlying Chinese steel demand is expected to once again weaken and the annual steel restock should be smaller than normal," Citi analyst Ivan Szpakowski said in a note to clients.
"Domestic iron ore mines have yet to fully accept lower prices though, with production likely to fall further and accumulated ore inventories should draw."
Benchmark 62-per cent grade iron ore for immediate delivery to China's Qingdao port dropped 1.1 per cent to $US69.06 a tonne overnight. The price of the steelmaking commodity has fallen nearly 50 per cent this year, hitting $US68.49 on November 26, its lowest since June 2009.
Citi last month said it expected iron ore to drop below $US60 in 2015 due to renewed supply growth and further weakness in demand.
Output at the big mills fell nearly 6 per cent in late October with industrial facilities surrounding Beijing ordered to curb production and later to shut temporarily for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in early November.
China's implied domestic steel demand shrank 12 per cent year-on-year in November after dropping 1.7 percent in October, Citi said, citing the China Iron and Steel Association and trade data and inventory at mills and traders.
"This can be partly explained by the massive curtailments of the economic activity in six northern provinces around the APEC meetings and the subsequent pollution control measures, but the extent of the implied decline is nonetheless surprising," Szpakowski said.
"Steel demand is expected to weaken early next year due to tight credit conditions and softening manufacturing exports," he said. "We also do not anticipate strong government stimulus, believing that recent actions have been moderate stabilising measures."
Chinese steel demand is expected to weaken further early next year.
Vacuum cleaner group Godfreys has made a steady debut on the ASX, with its opening trades at a respectable 3.6 per cent premium to the offer price of $2.75 per share.
The first trades were at $2.85 as the firm hit the boards at noon, and shares are currently up 4 per cent at $2.86.
The largest shareholder in Godfreys is 96-year-old John Johnston, one of the pioneers of the business who first joined in 1936. His Arcade Finance Pty Ltd vehicle holds 20.2 per cent of the company, even though he has undertaken a partial sell-down in the float.
Godfreys, which initially set out to raise up to $103 million, downsized the float to $78 million in early November. Godfreys has 209 retail outlets in Australian and New Zealand and holds 27 per cent market share by volume of the $1.3 billion vacuum and cleaning products market.
Investment banks Nomura and Investec exited in the Godfreys float as they quit both their equity stakes and shareholder loans.
Respectable ASX debut for Godfreys. Photo: Rob Carew
The oil price has resumed its slide after Iran predicted a further slump in prices if solidarity among OPEC members falters.
Brent is down 1.5 per cent at $US65.83 a barrel, after earlier in the session touching a new five-year low at $US65.78. US crude has also erased yesterday's gains, falling to $US62.82 a barrel.
Crude could fall to as low as $US40 a barrel amid a price war or if divisions emerge in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said an official at Iran’s oil ministry.
The 12-member group, which supplies 40 per cent of the world’s oil, may need to call an extraordinary meeting in the first quarter if the drop continues, according to Energy Aspects.
Oil is trading in a bear market as OPEC agreed at a November 27 gathering not to cut output to force a slowdown in US production, which has risen to the highest level in three decades. Saudi Arabia and Iraq this month widened discounts on crude exports to their customers in Asia, bolstering speculation that group members are fighting for market share.
‘‘With OPEC looking like a dysfunctional family, no pullback in US production and a lack of geopolitical concerns, it’s all adding up to lower prices,’’ says CMC chief strategist Michael McCarthy.
Oil’s collapse has left the market below equilibrium, according to Mohammad Sadegh Memarian, the head of petroleum market analysis at the oil ministry in Tehran. Iran, hobbled by economic sanctions over its nuclear program, wants to boost production to 4.8 million barrels a day once the curbs are removed, he said at a conference in Dubai yesterday.
There are growing calls for an emergency meeting by OPEC to stem the slide in oil prices.
The Aussie dropped to the day's low of 82.65 US cents on the back of the very soft Chinese inflation numbers.
It was already a bit under pressure after local consumer confidence plunged to ''very disturbing levels".
The dollar is currently fetching 82.72 US cents.
Staying in China, the country's factory-gate deflation deepened and consumer prices climbed at the slowest pace since 2009, signalling room for further monetary easing.
The producer-price index dropped 2.7 per cent in November from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today, compared with the median projection of a 2.4 per cent decline.
Consumer prices rose 1.4 per cent, compared with the 1.6 per cent increase in October.
Falling oil and metals prices have cut costs for China’s factories, leading to lower export prices and adding to disinflation pressure across the world.
China’s central bank last month cut interest rates for the first time in two years as the economy heads for its weakest full-year growth since 1990.
‘‘China has entered into a rapid disinflation process, and faces the risk of deflation,’’ said Liu Li-Gang, chief Greater China economist at ANZ. ‘‘As the PBOC has exhausted its newly invented and ineffective policy tools, we believe the next move will have to be a RRR cut in order to regain policy effectiveness and credibility.’’
China risks falling into deflation if the central bank doesn't act, analysts say. Photo: Brent Lewin
Chinese regulators have asked brokerages about the impact of yesterday's shock stock market slump on their operations, the state-owned Securities Times newspaper reports.
The regulators have also ordered securities firms to submit a report with their near-term outlook for the stock market, the paper said, citing unidentified sources from various brokerage firms.
Such checks are standard procedures taken by regulators following big swings in the stock market, according to industry experts.
Chinese shares plunged 5.4 per cent in late trade yesterday, sharply reversing course from a two-week rally fuelled in part by speculation the central bank would further ease policy, with a key stock index recording its biggest fall since the depths of the global financial crisis.
The dramatic fall was sparked by a slump in China’s currency, the renminbi, as well as tougher regulations on lower grade bonds being used as collateral to borrow cash.
The China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp announced on Monday, after trade closed, that corporate bonds with a rating below AAA and those issues by companies with a rating below AA could no longer be used as collateral for short-term loans.
“They’re restricting the use of lower valued, or lower rated, bonds as assets to lend against,†Macquarie Bank division director Martin Lakos said.
“In reality, it’s a very good move, but in the short term it might impact, in particular, those lower rated bonds or bond market and the stock market has turned down on the back of that.â€
The Shanghai Composite is down 0.3 per cent today.
The Shanghai Composite slumped 8 per cent from top to bottom within just two hours yesterday.
In-play mining services company Bradken is expected to usher suitors Pacific Equity Partners and Bain Capital into final-stage due diligence, in an effort to secure an agreed $872Â million takeover offer, reports the AFR's Street Talk column.
Sources said Bradken was likely to allow PEPÂ and Bain back into the data room by the end of the week after discussing its options with major shareholders in recent days.
It’s understood PEP and Bain want their lawyers and accountants to take a closer look at Bradken’s key contracts, before seeking a board-recommended deal with the Newcastle-based company.
Bradken, though, is expected to seek the buyout firms’ assurance that they will stick by the $5.10 a share indicative bid before granting the confirmatory due diligence, and not use the opportunity to walk down the price.
Bradken shareholders and sell-side analysts are believed to be largely in favour of the $5.10 a share offer, and expect the company to recommend it in the absence of a higher offer.
It’s understood Bradken is yet to receive any other formal approaches.
Bradken also has a small equity raising which it has put on hold until after the takeover discussions are finished.
The company revealed the raising along with the $5.10 a share approach on Friday. If Bradken rejects PEP and Bain’s offer, or if the suitors walk, Bradken’s expected to revisit its equity options.
Hedge funds have made their way onto Bradken’s register in the past three trading days. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have been in the thick of trading according to Bloomberg data.
UBS analysts reckon PEP and Bain’s offer valued Bradken at 7.2 times earnings, on a forecast 2015 financial years EBITDA-to-enterprise valuation basis, and 12.3-times forecast profit.
The regulator has said it wants banks to limit their investment housing lending to 10 per cent a year (see post at 9:55). That's not much of a stretch for the Big Four - or the regionals who actually look to have been pulling back - but check out Macquarie's charge for the investor dollars.
That said, Macquarie's growth comes off a much lower base than the big boys.
Other than MacBank, it doesn't look like APRA's "suggested" limit will affect the bank's lending much, but may provide the RBA the cover it needs to lower rates without stoking a runaway housing bubble.
Macquarie has been aggressively growing its investment housing loan book.
Here's a snapshot of how discretionary retailer stocks are trading following this morning's weak consumer confidence data.
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Retailers' shareholders may be bracing for a tough Christmas.
This year’s AFR salary survey has seen a strong rise in the total pay of Australia’s top chief executives and chair people, thanks to a rush of floats onto the market.
Nine Entertainment boss David Gyngell topped the survey with a total salary of $19.6 million, more than $6 million ahead of the next best paid boss – Kevin Chin, chief executive of little known investment group Arowona International, who received a staggering $13.3 million, despite his company having a market value of just $155 million.
Click here for an interactive on detailed salary information about the 300 best-paid executives and how executive pay has changed over the past decade ($).
The 10 best paid executives in 2014. Source: AFR
A revamped deal between the NBN Co, Telstra and Optus covering the roll-out of the government's hybrid broadband network is a milepost in a long journey, but an important one.
Cabinet was set to consider the new deal on Tuesday. Telstra's board and Optus's parent, Singtel, were in the wings, ready to approve it once cabinet agreed. Announcements are expected as soon as Sunday, and contracts as thick as old Telstra telephone directories should be signed before Christmas.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission will take months more to review the contacts, but agreement on co-operation and terms is a breakthrough.
As part of the deal, NBN Co will acquire the hybrid fibre coaxial (HFC) cable networks that Telstra and Optus rolled out in the mid-90s with their pay TV offers. It will upgrade and merge them, fill gaps in their coverage, and use the HFC to accelerate its broadband roll-out.
The government's hybrid broadband plan replaces Labor's national fibre to the home network, and patches together fibre to the home, fibre to the neighbourhood node and the Telstra and Optus cable.
It is significantly different architecture to Labor's but Telstra's demand that it be "kept whole" on its original $11.2 billion deal with Labor and the NBN Co is going to be met, and then some.
Telstra's original deal was valued at $11.2 billion on a net present value basis that discounted payments that were to flow over decades. Actual payments over 55 years were estimated at $98 billion. The new deal should lock that value in and add to it, because Telstra will also be paid as an adviser to the roll-out and construction overseer.
Telstra shares are 0.2 per cent higher to $5.65 in a down market.
NBN Co has struck an important deal with Telstra and Optus. Photo: Damien White
Even banks are developing helpful robots.
As many as half a million accountants, supermarket cashiers, secretaries, typists and bank tellers in what are largely white-collar jobs are threatened by automation, Department of Industry modelling shows.
However, growing fears that robots and artificial intelligence could cast millions from the middle-class into unemployment and poverty are overblown, the department's chief economist, Mark Cully, said.
The fact a large range of relatively high-skilled jobs were likely to be lost only supported the need for Australians and governments to embrace structural change that guarantees economic growth and prosperity, he said.
One of the greatest benefits of increased automation – even if its temporary impact on jobs is painful – was that it would lead to higher productivity, and eventually cheaper goods and higher disposable incomes.
"Just as it did during the Industrial Revolution, when the invention of the loom led to waves of unemployed weavers but cheaper clothing for the masses," Cully said.
The findings, published today in the inaugural Australian Industry Report 2014 brings an Australian perspective to an increasingly intense debate that has ranged all year in the US over the question of whether automation and advances in computer software are starting to displace white-collar, middle-class jobs for the first time in accelerating numbers.
You could be forgiven for not noticing, given the bloodbath in energy stocks in particular over the past week or so, but Medibank Private has been edging higher, notwithstanding the chorus of “naysayers†who argued loudly that its IPO price of $2.15 was way over the top.
It closed at a new high of $2.22 on Tuesday and has edged ahead another 1c to $2.23 so far today.
Its defensive characteristics help, but clearly given the volumes traded since listing - with $500 million worth of shares traded on Monday alone - institutional investor buying has meant that staggers in the wake of the IPO have left some money on the table.
Currency traders have responded calmly to this morning's “disturbing†consumer confidence figures: the Aussie dollar has eased one tenth of a US cents to 82.91 US cents.
Consumer sentiment has plunged to its lowest level in more than three years.
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.7 per cent to 91.1 in December, following a rise of 1.9 per cent in November, and an increase of 0.9 per cent in October.
The index is now 13.3 per cent lower than its value a year ago, and has been below the neutral mark of 100 for the last ten months.
"This is a very disturbing result," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "The index is now at its lowest level since August 2011, when it briefly fell below 90.
“Respondents are clearly concerned about the outlook for the economy and job security. In addition there is ongoing disillusionment about the May budget, six months after it was announced."
Bank shareholders have not liked the sound of new curbs on investment housing lending, selling down the shares in early trade and sinking the market in the process.
The ASX 200 is 28 points, or 0.5 per cent, lower at 5254.6, while the All Ords has dropped 27 points to 5231.2.
Among the banks:
- Westpac -1.3%
- NAB -1.2%
- ANZ -0.9%
- CBA -0.2%
- Macquarie Bank -1.5%
CSL has also given up some of its gains, down 1.5 per cent, while Woolies continues its slide, down 1.4 per cent.
Gains among miners and energy stocks have offset the losses somewhat, with gold miners jumping after scares in the Greek and Chinese sharemarkets sent investors back to the precious metal.
Coca-Cola Amatil is up 1.8 per cent as an analyst upgraded the stock.
Australia's financial regulators have launched a joint attack on risky home lending as investment and interest-only loans threaten the stability of the financial system. Â
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority contacted the nation's banks on Tuesday to tell them of new speed limits that would prevent them from aggressively pursuing investment property borrowers.
At the same time, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission said it would investigate interest-only loans, which make borrowers highly sensitive to movements in interest rates.
The move could put the brakes on the rampant property markets in Sydney and Melbourne, which have seen house prices rise at a double-digit pace fuelled in part by demand for investment loans.Â
The investigation will probe the banks, including the big four, as well as non-bank lenders and their behaviour as the property market heats up, ASIC said.Â
"The review follows concerns by regulators about higher-risk lending, following strong house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne," it said.Â
ASIC, APRA, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasury were working together on the investigation, which will "monitor, assess and respond to risks in the housing market", ASIC said.
They will co-ordinate their investigation through the Council of Financial Regulators.Â
APRA's Wayne Byres says it will be dialling up the intensity of its supervision. Photo: Patrick Scala
He led the revival of James Bond in the mid 2000s. Now Harry Sloan is on a mission determined to do the same thing with Australia's third-ranked metropolitan free-to-air broadcaster, Ten Network.
Mr Sloane, the former boss of movie studio MGM, is one of four bidders vying for the struggling TV network that analysts say will go broke in two years unless it can flip its flagging fortunes.
Ten's suitors – which feature an eclectic bunch of Hollywood veterans - are awaiting a response from the broadcaster's independent directors, who are expected to decide on their favoured bid as early as this week.
Ten has maintained that all proposals are confidential and has declined to comment on "speculation" about the fate of the company.
But here is what we know so far:
US cable TV giant Discovery Communications and local pay-TV monopoly Foxtel were confident that they were the only serious players in town just over a week ago when they slashed their indicative offer of 26 cents a share to 23 cents, valuing Ten at $605 million.
But soon after Mr Sloan and his business partner, former CBS and Sony Pictures boss Jeff Sagansky, emerged as new entrants through their United States-based acquisition vehicle Silver Eagle.
Ten's latest suitor helped breathe new life into the half-century old James Bond franchise, with Daniel Craig as the sixth actor to play the martini-sipping spy,
Some relief for beleaguered oil and gas stocks after Brent rose for the first time in six days amid speculation about the price level that will force some producers to curb investment and limit future supply growth. West Texas Intermediate advanced in New York.
Brent futures rose as much as 1.1 per cent in London, reversing an earlier loss of 1.4 per cent. US shale oil production will continue to grow, according to Citigroup, while consultant Energy Aspects said the expansion may slow next year. Price competition intensified in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after Iraq, the group's second-largest producer, reduced its Basrah Light crude price for January to the lowest in at least 11 years.
Crude is trading in a bear market as the highest US production in three decades exacerbates a global glut. Saudi Arabia, which led OPEC's decision to maintain rather than cut output at a Nov. 27 meeting, last week offered supplies to its Asian customers at the deepest discount in at least 14 years.
"After yesterday's solid fall, it's no surprise that oil is taking a small breather," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Oslo-based SEB, said. "The market will remain volatile until it finds the Goldilocks price that dampens US shale oil supply growth, stimulates the global economy and still lets OPEC members survive."
Crude oil prices have risen for the first time in nearly a week.
Greek stocks suffered their steepest daily fall in more than a quarter century on Tuesday and its bond yields jumped after Prime Minister Antonis Samaras brought forward a presidential election in a gamble over his, and the country's future.
If Samaras fails to secure victory in parliament for his presidential candidate, snap national elections will be called that the leftist Syriza party - a fierce opponent of Greece's bailout deal with the European Union and IMF - is likely to win.
Financial markets took Samaras's do-or-die decision badly, as he lacks enough support to win the vote in parliament without the backing of independents and small parties.
The Athens general stock index tumbled 12.8 per cent, its biggest loss in a day since 1987. An index of Greece's listed banks fell 14.7 percent, with Attica Bank down 27.5 percent.
The decision sent 10-year Greek government bond yields up 74 basis points to 8.09 percent. This is a level the government could not afford to borrow at for long if, as it hopes, the country exits the widely hated bailout program and finances itself on the debt market.
German 10-year Bund yields, which fall in times of uncertainty as investors seek refuge in top-rated assets, were down 3 bps at a record low of at 0.688 percent.
Bondholders fear the possibility of Syriza abandoning austerity polices imposed to bring Greece's state finances into order. They prefer pro-business governments that would stick to the rigors imposed by the IMF/EU program - which have helped to slash Greeks' living standards.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has called an election.
Chinese shares plunged on Tuesday, sharply reversing course from a two-week rally fuelled in part by speculation the central bank would further ease policy, with a key stock index recording its biggest fall since the depths of the global financial crisis.
Volatility also gripped the currency markets, where the yuan posted its biggest one-day decline against the US dollar since 2008 on talk of a possible cut in banks' reserve requirements by the central bank - which could flood the market with renminbi and so dilute its value versus the dollar.
The gyrations follow the People's Bank of China's surprise November interest rate cut in response to a steady drumbeat of weak economic data.
Recent months have seen weaker-than-expected trade data, signs of looming deflation and a housing market - a major internal driver of growth - that has failed to pick up despite easing of administrative restrictions.
"More market volatility will be the new normal," said Zheng Weigang, head of investment atShanghai Securities. But he added that regulators may not necessarily be pleased with the outcome.
"The recent sharp rally in the stock market indicates that money freed from the PBOC's recent rate cut has not flowed in to the real economy, and that is worrying regulators."
In the stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index started the day rising to a 3-1/2-year high, before collapsing in the afternoon to lose more than 5 percent, the biggest single-day percentage drop since 2009, as investors took profits in sectors such as banking and property.
Local shares are poised to edge lower at the open after concerns about China, Greece and oil put overseas investors on the defensive.
What you need2know:
• ASX SPI futures up 4 points, or 0.1%, to 5288
• AUD at 82.86 US cents
• On Wall St, S&P 500 flat, Dow -0.3%, Nasdaq +0.3%
• In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.6%, FTSE -2.1%, CAC -2.6%, DAX -2.2%
• Spot gold up $US26.83 to $US1230.34 an ounce
• Brent oil up 18 US cents to $US66.37 per barrel
• Iron ore down 74 US cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $US69.06/tonne
What’s on today:
• Westpac consumer sentiment December; ABS monthly home loan data
• Chinese monthly inflation at 12:30pm AEST
• US October crude oil inventories
• Japan fourth-quarter business survey index.
Stocks to watch:
• APRA is putting pressure on banks to reduce investor home loan growth
• Coca-Cola Amatil raised to an overweight vs neutral at JP Morgan
• Major Fortescue shareholder MMK may sell 5% stake in the iron ore miner (not the first time this has been speculated)
• Anglo American is to sell stakes or exit Australian and South African thermal coal operations
• BoA-ML sees global LNG entering mulit-year bear market on supplies
• APA Group is planning a $1.8 billion rights issue to fund purchase of BG pipeline assets, reports AFR
• Woodside is the preferred bidder for Apache assets, reports The OZ
• Worley Parsons cut to hold vs buy at Deutsche Bank
• Shaw Stockbroking has re-initiated coverage of Nick Scali with a “buy†recommendation and a 12-month price target of $3.20 a share.
Good morning and welcome to the Markets Live blog for Wednesday.
Your editors today are Jens Meyer and Patrick Commins.
This blog is not intended as investment advice.
BusinessDay with wires.