The first college football playoff is set.

Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State are in. Texas Christian University and Baylor are out.

But while Alabama got the top seed, Oregon is actually the favourite according to Nate Silver’s model.

Here are the odds for each of the four teams to win the championship based on 20,000 simulations of the playoff:

1. Oregon, 35.4%
2. Alabama, 32.1%
3. Ohio State, 18.8%
4. Florida State, 13.7%

Of course, like many of these models, this doesn’t mean that Silver is predicting Oregon to win and it doesn’t even mean Oregon is likely to win. In fact, there is a 64.6% chance that Oregon will not win the championship.

This doesn’t even mean that Oregon is the best team in the field, although ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) does rate Oregon as slightly better than Alabama.

One of the things going for Oregon is that the Ducks have the easier semifinal matchup and are less likely to be upset in the final four. Oregon will face Florida State, who is 10th in FPI, while Alabama must face Ohio State, who is third overall.

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