IT’S only eight days in an already the weather has been mighty erratic so what does the rest of summer hold?
We asked meteorologist Magdalena Roze to give us the insider forecast so you can plan your family holidays and outings accordingly.
What sort of summer is Australia in for?
Australia is in for a summer scorcher with hotter than normal days and nights for most of the mainland. It’s also expected to be drier than average, particularly in January and February. With these two features combined, there’s an increased likelihood of a more intense bushfire season and heatwaves. An average to below average cyclone season is most likely meaning a later start and less cyclones forming in Australian waters and making landfall (the average is 11 formations and 4 crossings).
What’s with all the thunderstorms recently?
It’s been an extremely humid and stormy start to summer across most of northern and Eastern Australia. Places like Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne have been feeling tropical! Warm and very humid northeasterly winds are carrying a heap of moisture from the Coral Sea off Queensland and dumping it over most of eastern Australia. While the stifling humidity is commonplace in the tropics during summer, it’s unbearable in places unaccustomed to this type of heat like Sydney and Melbourne.
As s result the atmosphere is laden with moisture and all that’s needed is a trigger to turn this into rain. There has been a broad area of low pressure over Eastern Australia this week creating unsettled conditions. On Thursday a trough moved towards the east and coined with this system to cause further instability and storms. These two systems will very slowly moved northeast over try next few days creating another few days of severe storms and heavy rain. The next 7 days parts of northern inland NSW and southern inland QLD may see over 300mm of rain!
We keep seeing ‘record hot days’, is our climate getting hotter?
There’s no doubt that our climate is getting hotter. Australia’s air and ocean temperatures have warmed by almost a degree since 1910 and this warming is being mirrored globally. The number of record hot days continues to increase (while cooler extremes decrease) which is in line with global warming projections.
2013 was Australia’s hottest year on record and this spring was Australia’s hottest on record. Globally, this January to September is currently tied with 1998 as the hottest on record and there’s a strong chance 2014 will be the hottest on record. There may be year on year climate variability but the evidence and trend is clear: the climate is getting hotter.
What should Aussies look out for this summer?
Aussies should look out for more hot days this summer as well as heatwaves and bushfires. While there are usually less thunderstorms in a hot and dry outlook, when they do happen they can be more ferocious because there’s so much heat to fuel them and give them energy. So when storms are forecast, they can bring damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain. On storm days, it’s important to tie down loose items and park your car under cover. And never walk, drive of ride through flood waters.
For more weather information, visit Magdalena’s blog at magdalenaroze.com.