But according to a rail expert, this unassuming patch of earth sandwiched between Sydney’s suburban sprawl and the Blue Mountains beyond could be responsible for dashing the dream of high-speed rail in Australia for “three or four decades”.

That’s despite TGV-style train travel between Sydney and Melbourne being “perfectly viable” and a transport option that would give “airlines a run for their money”, John Hearsch, president of rail advocacy organisation Rail Futures, told news.com.au.

This patch of land — and many more around it — are about to be torn up to construct Sydney’s second airport.

Once known as Badgerys Creek, the largely rural suburb where much of the airport will be based, the $8 billion facility is now officially and grandly known as Western Sydney International (Nancy-Bird Walton) Airport in honour of one of Australia’s great aviation pioneers.

All going to plan, the tottering telegraph poles will be replaced by terminals and the meadows by runways in 2026.

“In my view, the decision to go ahead with Badgerys Creek Airport has, in practical terms, set back the case for high-speed rail on the east coast for three or four decades,” Mr Hearsch said at the AFR National Infrastructure Summit earlier this month.

The key reasons are cost and capacity.

The new airport is swallowing billions of dollars that could otherwise be spent on rail. While its opening will dramatically increase the number of planes that can traverse the Melbourne to Sydney corridor, already the world’s second busiest single air route with 54,000 flights a year.

Kingsford Smith, Sydney’s current airport, is constrained by curfews, flight paths and has little room for physical expansion.

“A second Sydney airport will to a very large extent overcome those deficiencies, and given what a large capital investment the airport is in its own right, it seems that the case for bringing on high-speed rail is now maybe not diminished, but differed,” Mr Hearsch said to news.com.au on the sidelines of the summit.

He added at the moment high-speed rail would be solving a problem that didn’t exist.

“It’s not as though people are having great difficulty travelling (up and down the east coast),” Mr Hearsch said.

“We have multiple airlines on that corridor; there is competition which generally seems to work; lots of choice, so it’s not the same problem as in some urban areas where people are actually having difficulty getting around.”

GIVE AIRLINES A ‘RUN FOR THEIR MONEY’

With high-speed trains hurtling up to 300km/h, passengers could expect to leave Central and arrive at Southern Cross three hours later. Mr Hearsch said that would be compelling proposition for travellers.

“If high-speed rail did start up between Sydney and Melbourne, it would give airlines a run for their money.

“It would be very competitive because three hours CBD to CBD is perfectly achievable by (fast) rail, and you don’t often achieve that by air nowadays,” he said.

Travel to airports, longer security queues, weather delays and congested routes are gradually slowing down air travel, while faster trains are now competitive.

“There’s no doubt high-speed rail would provide a better experience than travelling by air, but it comes at a high price,” Mr Hearsch said

That’s an understatement — somewhere around $100 billion for a Melbourne to Brisbane via Sydney alignment.

“Once high-speed rail is up and running, it can be perfectly viable and will cover its costs. But the huge capital investment upfront is highly unlikely to provide a commercial level that the private sector would support, so beyond that it will have to be government (funding).

“The Government will always have to contribute a large amount, and then you get into the argument of, well, if you’re going to spend $100 billion, should you spend it on schools and hospitals instead — but we’ll always have that argument.”

THREE CITIES, 30 MILLION PEOPLE

One of high-speed rail’s big backers is Labor leader Anthony Albanese. But he’s not in power, and the Coalition’s preferred option is to invest in more modest faster rail proposals between east coast capitals and satellite cities — such as a line that will connect Melbourne to Geelong in 35 minutes.

Australasian Railway Association chief executive officer, Danny Broad, also said there were hurdles to get over before fast trains would be seen shooting down parallel to the Hume Highway.

“You have 30,000km of high-speed rail track in China. If you put the map of China on top of Australia, we’re a bit smaller, but they have 1.4 billion people and we have 25 million people, so that gives you an idea of whether the business case will stack up.”

Nevertheless, he said it was vital the east-coast corridor for the network was purchased and reserved.

“The longer you leave it without locking away the corridor the more tunnelling you need, and then the price will go through the roof,” he said.

Infrastructure Australia (IA), the independent public body that assesses and ranks the country’s future infrastructure needs, doesn’t even call for the construction of high-speed rail.

However, its 2019 infrastructure priority list does list reserving the corridor as a “high priority initiative”. That means it’s grouped with other projects that aren’t vital now but warrant further investigation and the preparation of a business case.

A little under $3 billion could save a future rail route from other development, which may well be needed given the combined population of Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane is likely to exceed 30 million by 2075.

“The future demand for efficient, high-capacity transport services between major centres on Australia’s east coast will likely exceed the capacity of existing and planned rail, road and aviation services,” IA states.

That means even Sydney’s new airport won’t be enough in the long term.

It’s a position Mr Hearsch agrees with.

“The case for high-speed rail is difficult to make in the short term and probably the medium term,” he said.

“But there will come a time when high-speed rail does stack up both socially and economically.”

A few decades after a field west of Sydney has morphed into a major airport, another field south of Sydney will likely have to undergo the same transformation — but into a high-speed rail line.

benedict.brook@news.com.au