Kristen Buchanan is confident Margie Bee can race well on a heavy track for the first time when she competes at Kembla Grange.
The Dreamscape three-year-old filly takes her place in a Class 1 Handicap (1200m) after winning last start at Newcastle on a soft five rated surface.
Today she will step onto a very wet track but her trainer isn’t worried because she’s won once and run second twice from three attempts on soft tracks.
Buchanan has Margie Bee fit and firing after four very good runs this time in.
She’s only won once but has run second twice and was less than a length off the winner when fourth two starts ago.
“Her soft track form is good enough for me to be confident about handling a heavy track,” Buchanan said.
“I think she’ll be fine. She has enough bulldog in her to run well. She’ll run through a brick wall.”
Margie Bee will jump from barrier four and Jake Hull will ride her again in a way that gives her the best possible chance of winning.
She settles off the speed at her first two runs but has either led or been second in the run at her past three starts.
“She’s just been comfortable on the speed,” Buchanan said. “She’s not the happiest in among horses. She likes to be out there doing her own thing.
“She doesn’t have to lead but she settles well in front.
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BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS: KEMBLA
BEST BET: LUCKNOW LADY (Race 2, No. 7)
Mark Newnham-trained filly who is crying out for the 1500m. She made up plenty of ground on debut here over 1200m then had to switch over heels and charge late in a Kensington 1200m on June 10.
NEXT BEST: CARAMBOLA (Race 8, No. 11)
Races in the famous Makybe Diva colours, this daughter of High Chaparral is a very progressive mare from the John O’Shea camp who was third to Frankely Awesome on debut and ran a ripper race at Newcastle first-up.
VALUE BET: EXCELLENT PROPOSAL (Race 6, No. 5)
Well bred colt from the Richard and Michael Freedman camp having his first run that has really caught the eye on his two trials the preparation. Has to handy the heavy but so do they all.
BEST EXOTIC: EXACTA (Race 2: 7 to beat 6)
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1,2,6
Race 6: 5,10
Race 7: 1,3,10
Race 8: 3,9,11
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: BLAKE SHINN
Blake Shinn won’t be making many trips to Kembla, maybe none, before he heads off to Hong Kong but he’ll leave with good memories given his chance of a ‘haul’ on Thursday.
TRAINER TO FOLLOW: JOHN O’SHEA
Could very well bookend the Kembla card with $1.25m yearling De Valera ready to win the opener and the aforementioned Carambola ‘ditto’ in the last race.
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“You don’t need to worry about negotiating the rest of the field when they fan out on a wet track. On-speed horses are gold.”
Designated is Buchanan’s other hope in a 2YO Maiden Plate (1200m), although he’s untested on wet ground after just three runs on better surfaces than he will face on Thursday.
He comes off a fourth placing at Kembla Grange, which was an eye-catching run.
Designated came from 11th at the turn and had to duck back to the inside rail to make his run. When he got going, he took many lengths off the field in front.
“He was a little unlucky last start when he had that stumble early and got interfered with,” Buchanan said. “He picked himself up, though, and really hit the line well.
“It was a disjointed run but his momentum didn’t really get stopped when he had to switch back to the inside.”
Hull will also ride Designated from barrier 12, which has its positives and negatives.
Buchanan would like the track to dry out a bit to see the best of the juvenile.
“We’ll let him settle off the speed,’’ she said. “The rail out makes it a little bit harder but you don’t want to be on the rail when it’s wet at Kembla. They do fan wide at Kembla when it’s wet.
“He’s a very nice horse and I’m really pleased with him. He’s only a baby but he’s a horse of the future and is showing all the right signs.”
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INSIDE MAIL WITH SHAYNE O’CASS: KEMBLA GRANGE
RACE 1
De Valera cost $1.25m as a yearling not least because her dam is a half to Afleet Alex who was placed in the Kentucky Derby then won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. De Valera s is crying out for 2000m on Thursday and gets a tick on the wet track being by Not A Single Doubt. Brilliance Squared races well at this venue and stays the 2000m. Is bred to handle the wettest of tracks and is a somewhat versatile ‘in-running’. Castel Sant’ Angelo will almost surely seek to lead here and he’ll fight until the end as nearly all Tulloch Lodge horses do.
BET STRATEGY: DE VALERA WIN, EXACTA 4 TO BEAT 2, QUINELLA 2,4
RACE 2
Lucknow Lady finds herself in the perfect race today being third-up after closing off willingly over 1200m (here) and 1400m on the Kensington track when had to come across heels to get a clear crack. The query is the wet track being a Sepoy. Betty Blooms is known to have no issues on the wet tracks and she will up on the speed and making her own luck. Classic Gaming has always looked like we’d see his best at a mile; we’re getting close to that now.
BET STRATEGY: LUCKNOW LADY WIN, QUINELLA 6,7, BOX TRIFECTA 2,5,6,7
RACE 3
Antonio is an I Am Invincible three-year-old who has been gelded since his November 30 placing at Canterbury behind River Bird. The great grandson of Wrap Around has always shown talent and both trials have been impressive. Freefica is a flashy filly who drifted from a $2.60 to $3.70 when an even 3-lengths fifth on debut at Hawkesbury, Can’t sack her on that run. Fearless Mila is a fast filly well placed here. Go Garic will be getting home at big odds.
BET STRATEGY: ANTONIO WIN, EXACTA 1 TO BEAT 5
RACE 4
Belitsa was very good at her first campaign, runner-up to the smart All Cylinders on debut then she won at Canterbury and was tipped out after finishing 4-lengths off Tenley in the G2 Reisling. Trials have been fantastic. Elenara finished like a train to win her first two runs last campaign. She is a local whose 3rd Dam was none other than Newmarket/Lightning winner fIsca. Sebring Express was fifth to her Portelli stablemate She Will Reign in the Inglis Nursery on a Heavy 8.
BET STRATEGY: BELITSA WIN
RACE 5
Tereka has made ground at the right end in all of three starts so far and whilst unplaced in each of them, she has been pretty close and getting closing with each stride. Joe Pride finds a 1200m maiden now for the Pierro filly second-up. Deelbraka has been runner-up four times in six starts and whilst he is a Dundeel that ran over 1800m at the end of last prep, the trials have been sensational. Emergent is the best horse in the race but suspect on wet ground.
BET STRATEGY: TEREKA WIN, EXACTA 6 TO BEAT 1
RACE 6
Excellent Proposal has come back in great order this campaign. His two trials at Randwick on May 31 and June 14 after that were both exceptional. He is bred to be a good horse and the only thing he has to do now is handle this very heavy track on debut. The well bred Islands is far more talented than her record suggests, she just needs to bring her trial form to race-day. Chris Waller filly Toomai was never passed a horse in her trial but she is ‘too well bred to fail.’
BET STRATEGY: EXCELLENT PROPOSAL WIN
RACE 7
Sneaky Fella could be ‘anything’ of he stays on the track long enough. The son of Choisir is a four-year-old having only his second ever start today. He hasn’t raced since his debut win here in September 2017 but trialled ‘up’ the other day at Gosford. Snips is a Snitzel son who was beat a handy one at Nowra first-up and should have won at Gosford after that. Bred to swim. Glamour Fox was fourth to Snips at Nowra then won at Gosford in supremely impressive style.
BET STRATEGY: SNEAKY FELLA WIN, BOX TRIFECTA 1,3,4,10
RACE 8
Carambola races in the Makybe Diva colours. The daughter of High Chaparral is clearly on an upward trajectory and could end up in town sooner rather than later. She couldn’t have run much better splits first-up in what was a sprint home in a very, very Class 1 at Newcastle. local Miss Jenny hit the line big time first-up. He’s A given is a renowned mudlark and does kind of likes the track and the trip.
BET STRATEGY: CARAMBOLA WIN, BOX TRIFECTA 3,9,11,12