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As Australia geared up for this year's World Cup, the team had nothing like the favourite status of tournaments past.
It was easy to predict that they would win some matches, but not that they would be the first team to lock in a semi-final berth thanks to stomping the genuine favourites England into the turf at Lord's.
Given various question marks still exist over the composition of Australia's best side, the consistency and scope of their success has been unexpected.
Principally it's built on two things. One is the opening partnership between Aaron Finch and David Warner, who have collectively amassed 996 runs in seven matches. The other is the inherent quality of Mitchell Starc, who did it again with 4 for 43.
Given Starc was player of the tournament in 2015, the prospect of him being influential this time was obvious. But the idea that he could reproduce his 2015 form was fanciful.
That was once in a career stuff, a glorious heady moment for a player to enjoy in the instant that it lasts. On his way to winning that World Cup, Starc knocked over a batsman every 17 deliveries. Those batsmen cost him 10 runs apiece.
It was absurd form, the sort of numbers bowlers might have returned on the baked mud of the 1800s.
Coming into this tournament, the magic was gone. Starc was still an excellent bowler, just not that irresistible force. In 2015 he had been new onto the scene, grabbing a five-wicket haul five times in his first 35 games. But in the four years and 34 games that followed, he didn't take another.
Whether it was that Starc was managing injuries or not playing enough or that opponents had better plans against him, his time as a force of nature seemed over.
But two games into this year's tournament and that World Cup mojo was back. The next five-for was notched up, along with twice taking four wickets where he was unlucky to miss out on the fifth.
In fact, Starc's bags of four are just as impressive in frequency. For fives, he's already seventh on the all-time list with half a dozen of them. For fours, he's sixth of all time with 11. So he's bagged four or more wickets in 17 career matches, which is also sixth on the career list.
The players equal to or above him all played at least twice as many matches, and some of them four times as many.
The other factor is that Starc is hitting the stumps again, just as he did on that spree in 2015. His whip action, the ball swerving, then the clunking sound as the bails light up. Sometimes played on, with the error caused by pace. Sometimes the fullest length and the swing.
And not just bowling out tailenders swinging for quick runs. Tamim Iqbal was well set on 62 when he was castled for Bangladesh. Sri Lanka's Kusal Perera was in great nick and had 52. Ben Stokes at Lord's was the best of the lot. Batting on 89, seeing the ball beautifully, middling every attacking shot.
And against Starc, trying none of that. Staying in his crease to defend. Seeing the full length and jamming down on it. But getting a ball from left-arm over the wicket that started outside the left-hander's off stump, abruptly reverse-swung in a few inches, pitched and straightened off the seam to take off stump. All Stokes tried to do was block it, but to him it was a phantom.
This is what Starc can do, in a career that includes 83 wickets to catches, and 81 to bowled and lbw. If you discount wicketkeeper nicks, he's had more batsmen bowled than he's had caught in the field. Find another one-day bowler who can say that.
And Starc especially is a nightmare to start against. Of the times he's dismissed someone for a duck, 19 of them are bowled, five lbw, and eight caught. He bowls consistently fuller than just about anyone else, he's fast as light, and he often swings the new ball before reversing the old one.
It's not just that Starc can do this. It's that he is doing it. In the previous World Cup he took 22 wickets. This time he has 19 in seven matches, with a possible four yet to play. He's eighth on the tournament's all-time list, having just gone past Allan Donald. And he's not even finished his second World Cup, compared to the four or five that some others played.
Obviously Starc had help at Lord's, with Jason Behrendorff taking 5 for 44. Apparently Australia had always been planning to play Behrendorff in this match, with their data suggesting that England struggle against left-arm pace.
Perhaps fortuitous was waking up to intense humidity. Good management was giving Behrendorff the new ball and the first over, backing him with every advantage. The bowler used it, pitching right up to find swing, hooping into James Vince's stumps. Second ball of the innings and the run chase was awry.
Two fast left-armers curving the ball around at pace was a sight to behold. But Starc remains the presence. When he followed suit to curl a ball into Joe Root's pad, England went from being troubled to being over. There was no comeback to that.
For now, the rest of the team almost doesn't matter. Whatever Australia get, and however they make them, Starc would feel confident of defending that score. He's done this before, and as unlikely as it might so recently have seemed, he's doing exactly the same again.
Topics: sport, cricket, united-kingdom, england
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