For the first time in a long time, a surplus is in sight. Like creating drought policy in the grip of drought, embarking on sensible tax reform when the budget is in the red has been difficult to accomplish. Now is the time to start preparing for the long, hard slog of reform.

The debate about whether we even have a problem is well and truly over. Australia has had a remarkable 27-year run of economic growth but the verdict is in: our taxes are inefficient. The Henry tax review delivered to Labor in 2010 told us that, and the Turnbull government's tax white paper would have said the same if it wasn't abandoned in 2015.

High company tax rates discourage business investment at the same time as generous tax concessions on investment properties and shares encourage widening wealth inequality. We are burning the candle at both ends.

Leadership turmoil and the growth of powerful lobby groups has meant the sensible centre of policy debate has ceded ground to the loudest voices in the room.

Labor triggered an outcry from vested interests when it proposed changes to negative gearing and tax refunds on dividends for retirees that had not paid taxes.

The volume of those debates gives a preview of the shouting match that would kick off if a courageous government were to consider more substantial changes such as broadening the GST, introducing a land tax or, as PwC recently proposed, eliminating the tax-free threshold and taxing most capital gains at 30 per cent.