Collingwood has no one like Clayton Oliver, who averages 2.7 centre clearances a game and 7.1 clearances around the ground. Taylor Adams is their best inside midfielder – averaging 2.6 centre clearances and 5.5 clearances around the ground a game – but he is not damaging like Oliver. Oliver’s hands are clean and creative - encouraging his teammates into space whereas Collingwood’s mids more often just play the ball forward for territory.
Grundy is about Collingwood’s best clearance player. He averages five clearances a game. So, to borrow from Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson who uses Jarryd Roughead sporadically in the midfield, Collingwood could seek to unsettle the Melbourne mids by having Grundy go in as an extra-large midfielder at the bounce.
Gawn is an excellent tap ruck but Cox has the greater reach. The logic would be that one of the rucks would roll forward after the bounce and swap with one of the mids like Steele Sidebottom or Adam Treloar who would start forward.
Similarly while Collingwood has preferred to use Jordan De Goey as a forward first and midfield second with more time spent in ahead of the ball than in the middle this could be a game to shift the balance. De Goey moved onto the ball against the Bulldogs and shifted the game with decisive clearances. Against Melbourne they might be better served with an extra big body around the stoppages and getting the ball forward.
Melbourne uses Christian Petracca the same way as De Goey but they have less call on his time as a midfielder because of the work of Oliver, Viney and Jones, so they are able to keep him as a threatening forward by using him in bursts on the ball hoping to maximise his impact.
Petracca was taken at pick two in the 2014 draft, just three places ahead of De Goey. Little separated them then, and nothing splits them as players now. They both have that Mark Ricciuto, Dustin Martin style of power game where the question will forever be asked where they do the most damage – as a forward or as a midfielder.
In terms of the team chasing finals credibility, Melbourne has the greater point to prove.
Remember the last time these teams played? Melbourne was certain to play finals until the last two hours of their season. They were so sure of it they produced marketing pamphlets mapping out where to get tickets and how to arrange your September. They only had to get over lowly, nothing to play for Collingwood in the last game of the year and they would play finals. And they lost. No, they were belted.
Melbourne was mentally soft, culturally soft. That softness has not yet been dispelled and will not until they make September and play well there, but to date they have done much to change it.
Their midfield is more brutal now than nine months ago. They are older, more battle ready and better. Dom Tyson can presently not get a game.
Melbourne has won heavily against poor teams, and now they have done it against a (then) top eight team, Adelaide. But they did it in Alice Springs in the environment of a JLT match. Now they need to do it on the MCG in front of full stands when they are expected to do it.
Melbourne played and won off Broadway; Collingwood is Broadway. Melbourne's ladder position gives it the expectation of a win, Collingwood has the expectation of a million fans.
NO REVIEW NECESSARY
A review system that instantly fixes obvious errors is a virtuous idea. It was the promise that clubs were sold on.
What is happening in games now is not that. On Sunday there was another clunker of a score review.
Jake Stringer snapped a ball from a pack in the last quarter. The officiating field umpire instantly called touched off the boot. A point was paid. That field umpire then called for a review, but he called it touched.
The footage was, as ever, not crystal clear but if it showed anything it was that Dayne Beams thumb and hand flicked back, and reinforced the officiating umpire’s instinctive call that the ball had been touched.
Instead the video reviewer saw something else, overturned the decision and paid a goal. It was breathtaking. We could say it was extraordinary, but bewildering reviewer decisions are becoming ordinary.
The video review system was supposed to overturn decisions only when there was conclusive evidence. It was certainly not conclusive that the ball had not been touched.
The principle of the review is sound – overturn when obvious. The application of that principle has been anything but sound.
SAINTS' NEW LOW
St Kilda wore jumpers displaying pride on Saturday night but played in them in a manner that displayed little.
This was not an effort of which to be proud. It was a new low for the drifting Saints.
They had pride in a worthy cause, but not enough in their own cause to compete in a game of football.
They were as poor as they have been any time since their apogee in round 16 last year when they beat Richmond. Remember that? A world away.
The first quarter was pathetic. They lacked grit, cohesion and understanding. Everything that has been wrong about their play was condensed neatly into one horrible quarter.
That Richmond game was either a mirage, or the team that has won only three games of 19 played since is playing desperately beneath itself.
Loading
The effect of a loss like Saturday night's is immediate but also a slow burn. Immediately it will see casualties at selection and youth introduced for the dead rubber season that is left to them. Young players will be tried and given a run. Josh Battle for instance should, must and no doubt will play every game for the rest of the year.
They will get to the end of the year and do surgery on their list. They will throw big money at Jordan De Goey and Rory Sloane, but those players would be asking why would I go there? Is it for money alone?
CATS ARE PURRING
It was hard to escape the symmetry. In Geelong, Gary Ablett picked up 34 youthful disposals and his team beat a good opponent.
Meanwhile, the team he captained and left was suffering badly against the resurgent Giants.
The Suns future is cloudy, but at the halfway mark of the season, the Cats appear to be getting their star-studded midfield sorted out.
Ablett appears clearer on his role and purpose than he has been for years.
Patrick Dangerfield seems less than 100 per cent but is still performing well, either forward or pushing in the middle.
Mitch Duncan started the year slowly but has returned to his best in recent weeks with selfless running and creative run out of defence.
Most importantly Joel Selwood is working his way back into top form, his second half against the Kangaroos was as critical to the victory as Ablett's heroics.
That leaves Tim Kelly, who is already a star, his crumbing and contested ball work is elite. Sam Menegola is smart and an endurance animal.
For all that excitement the real proof now comes on Sunday against Richmond at a venue the Tigers dominate and the Cats have struggled at in recent time.
By Peter Ryan
Michael Gleeson is a senior AFL football writer and Fairfax Media's athletics writer. He also covers tennis, cricket and other sports. He won the AFL Players Association Grant Hattam Trophy for excellence in journalism for the second time in 2014 and was a finalist in the 2014 Quill Awards for best sports feature writer. He was also a finalist in the 2014 Australian Sports Commission awards for his work on ‘Boots for Kids’. He is a winner of the AFL Media Association award for best news reporter and a two-time winner of Cricket Victoria’s cricket writer of the year award. Michael has covered multiple Olympics, Commonwealth Games and world championships and 15 seasons of AFL, He has also written seven books - five sports books and two true crime books.
Morning & Afternoon Newsletter
Delivered Mon–Fri.