WINTER is likely to be warmer and drier than average the Bureau of Meteorology says in their latest seasonal outlook, released today.

“South Australia is likely to have a dry, mild winter with warmer than average days and nights,” climatologist Jonathan Pollock said.

“It’s likely to be drier than an average season especially in the southeast where some parts have more than 70 per cent chance of below average rainfall.”

The dry season is a major concern for water resource management with less water flowing into storage, particularly around the Murray Darling Basin where there is a 70 to 80 per cent chance of below average rainfall.

Farmers are also facing a challenging growing season and some are still waiting to plant their crops.

“Most of the southern cropping areas look like they are in for drier than average winter with above average temperatures,” Mr Pollock said.

“For winter overall Adelaide is likely to have warmer than average days and nights and below average rainfall.

“However in June, night-times have a roughly even chance of being warmer or cooler than average.”

The forecast for June, July and August follows the trend set in Autumn, Mr Pollock said.

“Autumn has been very dry in many areas, it’s likely to rank as one of the five driest autumns on record,” he said.

“Compounding that it’s also been very warm, it’s on track for one of the five warmest Autumns on record too.

“The warm and dry conditions look set to continue into winter for much of South Australia.”

The complete autumn assessment will be released on Friday afternoon, when the Bureau has finished crunching the numbers.

However, the Bureau clearly states Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term warming trend in global air and ocean temperatures.

There is no El Niño or La Nina influence at the moment, with that climate driver gear stuck in neutral. In fact both the El Niño — Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are in neutral and forecast to remain that way during winter.

When broadscale drivers are neutral, the Bureau says the climate tends to be influenced by more local effects, such as the ocean temperatures immediately surrounding the continent.

Below average pressure over the Tasman Sea, associated with warmer than average ocean temperatures, are likely to weaken the westerlies that bring rain systems to southeast Australia.

The rainfall and temperature climate outlook maps released today show the likelihood, as a percentage, of experiencing wetter/drier and warmer/cooler than average weather for the upcoming three months.

The chance of exceeding average rainfall is 30 to 35 per cent for Adelaide and Port Lincoln, and 25 to 30 per cent for much of the state including the Barossa, Clare and Port Augusta, right over to Keith and Bordertown.

However it’s 50:50 for Kangaroo Island, meaning average rainfall can be expected.

The chance of exceeding the average maximum temperature is high, over 80 per cent for much of the state including Adelaide, Port Lincoln and Mount Gambier. And 70 to 75 per cent for northern parts of the state including Whyalla.

The chance of exceeding the minimum temperature is also high at 70 to 75 per cent for Adelaide and up to 85 per cent on Kangaroo Island.