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Posted: 2018-04-18 07:49:09

Updated April 18, 2018 18:38:54

Chemical weapons inspectors are in Syria to begin their fact-finding mission at the site of the alleged chemical attack at Douma 10 days ago.

But don't expect any definitive finding that points the finger at Syrian government forces, or any other group.

The chemical weapons watchdog — the Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) — lacks a mandate to assign blame, no matter what evidence it finds at the site.

Its brief in Syria is merely, "to establish facts surrounding allegations of the use of toxic chemicals … for hostile purposes".

Those facts might point to one side or another, but the OPCW cannot make any official conclusion about who the perpetrators were, at Douma or elsewhere.

Even so, the Syrian Government has been officially blamed for three previous chemical attacks, most recently at Khan Sheikhoun in April 2017, where around 90 people died from sarin or chlorine gas poisoning.

But it was a separate United Nations agency, the Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM), that found Syria's armed forces were behind that attack, after a months-long investigation in partnership with the OPCW.

Similar investigations also led to conclusions by the JIM that Syrian forces were responsible for earlier chemical attacks at Talmenes in 2014 and Sarmin in 2015.

Unlike the OPCW, the JIM had the power to assign blame. But its mandate expired last November.

And significantly, a UN resolution to extend its term was vetoed by Russia, Syria's strongest ally, at the UN Security Council.

As a result, we may never have definitive proof that Syrian forces or any other group were behind the suspected Douma chemical attack, even as the US and others insist there is clear evidence implicating the Syrian regime.

US says it has intelligence Syria was behind attack

This may be one reason the US and its allies, France and Britain, carried out retaliatory military strikes so soon, despite condemnation from Moscow for not waiting for the chemical inspectors' findings before attacking.

The US says it has its own intelligence to prove Syrian forces were behind the attack at Douma.

Although US intelligence sources have now admitted they do not have "absolute certainty" that the attack at Douma used sarin gas.

But they have told CNN the Trump administration still felt there was enough evidence to justify the retaliatory strikes.

The OPCW fact-finding team will play a crucial role in determining whether sarin gas was used at Douma, even if it makes no finding on who was to blame.

Last year, OPCW investigators working in partnership with the JIM found clear evidence of sarin residue at Khan Sheikhoun, even 10 days after the initial attack.

As with that investigation, the chemical weapons inspectors at Douma will carry out forensic work to find out what happened during the attack.

Previously, investigators have collected biological samples from victims to look for traces of chlorine or sarin.

They have searched for evidence to show whether a bomb was dropped from a plane or detonated on the ground.

Where safety permits, they have examined bomb sites for chemical residues.

They have interviewed witnesses at the scene to establish where and when bombs exploded.

And where possible they have sought information from Syrian military authorities about the deployment of planes.

Syria destroyed chemicals stockpile in 2013

It was the OPCW that oversaw the destruction of most of Syria's chemical weapons in 2013.

That intervention came after the worst chemical attack of the war, when between 300 and 1,400 people were killed in a sarin attack near Damascus.

The US threatened military retaliation at the time. Instead, the US, with Russian backing, convinced Syria to destroy its chemicals stockpile and sign up to the Chemical Weapons Convention for the first time.

The OPCW later claimed about 96 per cent of Syria's chemical weapons were destroyed.

Chemical attacks continued, at least three of them blamed on the Syrian regime.

Rebel groups have also been blamed for some attacks, and the Islamic State group was formally blamed for a mustard gas attack in 2016.

Even without assigning official blame, the chemical weapons inspectors in Douma may well produce enough evidence to join the dots.

Previous investigations have collected strong evidence to implicate the Syrian Government or other groups in one or other chemical attack, while stopping short of naming the perpetrator.

New sources shed further light on Douma attack

Meanwhile, other sources have produced their own evidence to shed light on the attack at Douma.

The open source website Bellingcat last week said a large gas cylinder of the type used in a previous aerial chlorine attack was filmed on top of a building where a large number of deaths were reported.

It also said aircraft spotters reported two Mi-8 Hip helicopters heading towards Douma 30 minutes before the attack.

It said the Syrian Government had previously been identified as using Mi-8s to drop chlorine cylinders on opposition-held areas.

Disputing the claims of Syrian Government involvement, Russian state television has broadcast video of an alleged chemical laboratory at Douma that it says rebels used to produce chlorine and mustard gas.

A Russian military expert said a chlorine canister found there was similar to one shown in images released by opposition activists in Douma.

Syria and Russia have denied any chemical attack took place at Douma, and Moscow has accused rebels of feigning the attack with the assistance of British intelligence — a claim Britain has rejected.

The OPCW's fact-finding team includes nine volunteers, who are likely to stay in the country for several days.

Russian and Syrian officials have cited "pending security issues" for any earlier delay in allowing them entry to Douma.

Topics: unrest-conflict-and-war, world-politics, law-crime-and-justice, syrian-arab-republic

First posted April 18, 2018 17:49:09

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