Bill Shorten and the federal ALP have kissed Queensland goodbye in the pursuit of the Green vote in the nation’s southeast.

Hopelessly split between his blue-collar Labor base and the increasing voting power of inner-city activists, Mr Shorten has spun the roulette wheel and put everything on Green.

Perhaps he is banking on rusted-on Labor voters’ loyalty but the state election and the party’s federal footprint here shows that’s foolish.

Labor’s current each-way stance puts all responsibility for the success of the Carmichael mine on Adani while the party actively undermines the project. Mr Shorten, his leadership team and Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk cast doubts on the viability of the project with rhetoric about delays, “fake jobs” and the need for it to “stack up, financially and environmentally”.

Ms Palaszczuk has conveniently forgotten how much her own actions, and activist-led legal battles, have affected the project’s timetable.

Don’t forget the State Government funds the Environmental Defenders Office – whose stated aim is to stop Adani – to the tune of $600,000 a year.

With activist-led legal battles ongoing, Adani is forced to largely say nothing publicly, apart from clarifying the odd outrageous claim published by fringe media outlets.

It’s say one thing, do another with Labor, but watch for a sharpening of the party’s Adani opposition in coming weeks.

Lone North Queensland Labor MP Cathy O’Toole won the crucial seat of Herbert by just 37 votes and is no dummy.

Mr Shorten hung her out to dry at his Batman campaign launch/Stop Adani rally last week, but to her credit, the Herbert MP has played it smart.

In a subtle rebuke of her leader’s stance, Ms O’Toole said “if it (Carmichael) stacks up, it stacks up”, which was a call to respect the umpire’s decision.

Later in the week she reminded Mr Shorten of the party’s precarious hold in Queensland, where it has only eight of the state’s 30 seats.

“Let’s be really clear: it is imperative that Labor wins the seat of Herbert and more seats in North Queensland,” she said.

Forget other seats; should KAP and PHON target Herbert at the next federal poll, Labor is toast. Without Herbert, the ALP’s northernmost Queensland seat is B

lair, west of the Sunshine Coast.

The Liberal National Party is dominant, holding 21 seats, with Bob Katter holding down Kennedy.

Labor increased from 55 to 69 seats in the last federal election, but if it is any hope of forming government, it must increase its footprint in Queensland.

But it seems Labor has decided to let regional Queensland wither and focus on where its influence is growing – and where the Green vote is strongest – Victoria and NSW.

By slipping into a green cardigan, Mr Shorten is banking on capturing some of the less-radical environmentalists who might otherwise vote Greens to send a message to the big parties.

Mr Shorten’s radical left turn won’t be enough to retain Batman, but Labor will immediately sharpen against Adani, using a “clear message from the electorate” line.

All that’s missing is Malcolm Turnbull, who appears to also have the yips about the activist Left and the perceived political danger of being pro coal.

It is left to the Northern Australia and Resources Minister Matt Canavan, based in pro-Adani Rockhampton, to argue the Government’s position.

Perhaps it’s the PM leaving the other side to hang themselves. He certainly has enough on his plate with the “bundle of Joyce” debacle.

But Mr Turnbull has an opportunity to send a strong signal to the vast majority of people in business – and voters in regional Queensland – by strongly condemning Labor’s damaging manoeuvring and backing Adani.

Announcing the Commonwealth will build the Galilee rail link would be a great start.

I support the Carmichael project but it has nothing to do with Adani.

I’m a big fan of mining because it built our state and put most of my mates through school. I hope it puts their kids through school too.

I also respect businesses’ rights to operate without interference from lobby groups who find the Australian way of life offensive.

Adani has been through the most rigorous legal and environmental vetting of any development of its kind in Australia – possibly the world.

And it’s sailed through every single test.

Critics comb Google for examples of alleged misconduct and corruption by the company overseas. These are utterly irrelevant.

The Carmichael mine will operate under Australian regulations, the safest and most environmentally responsible in the developed world.

The people jostling for front-row seats at North Queensland’s funeral think a Facebook status or waving some signs will change the world.

Sorry, but that’s just not how things work.

Here in the real world, as the activists in Bowen are learning, disrupting lawful business has real legal consequences.

The “Frontline Action on Coal” activist group – whose operatives are illegally camping on the Bogie River – is now trying to crowdfund $50,000 to cover fines and legal fees.

When I checked yesterday (two weeks after launch), just over $5000 had been raised. Ouch!

I’m sure this column will give the fundraiser a nice kick-along though.

You’re welcome guys, but I hope you need all that and more.