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Posted: 2017-10-04 01:10:03

Catalonia's rogue independence vote has not been enough to change the narrative in markets as investors remain focused on the economic progression of today rather than the potentially fraught political landscape of tomorrow.

On the weekend, a Catalan referendum turned violent after it was declared illegal by the Spanish government.

"The risk is now either a government crisis or a constitutional crisis," Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Marc Chandler wrote.

Against this backdrop, Catalan leaders could declare independence if they feel that they have enough support, raising fears that the region could secede from the rest of Spain.

But, reflecting the largely sanguine reaction to the turmoil from markets, analysts remain unconvinced on the prospect.

"We see secession as highly unlikely," Société Générale European equity strategist Kevin Redureau wrote. But, he added, he "sees no quick fixes either".

"Both sides are radically opposed, and tensions could rise in the coming days if a declaration of independence is proclaimed."

He believes that Catalan separation could continue to weigh on the country's sharemarket. "A combination of a minority government and the Catalan independence push might prevent Spain from making much-needed reforms, hence we remain shy of Spanish equities," he said.

While there's been a bit of downward reaction for Spanish equities, the euro is little moved and the spread between Spanish and German bunds - often a signal of stress - remains average, Legg Mason affiliate Brandywine Global portfolio manager Richard Lawrence noted.

The movement within asset markets, or the lack of it, illustrates current market thinking on Spain – that it's a local rather than a national issue.

"We believe this particular issue in Spain is more about national identity than populism—the struggle between Catalonia and Madrid has spanned centuries," Mr Lawrence said.

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