TAB - Market Update WINTER DASH.

RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR RANDWICK

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

ROYAL RANDWICK

R1 (11.25am): MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS PLATE (1200m)

Thomas: I’m leaning to Last Starfighter. He got a long way back at Rosehill but ran on powerfully late to finish a close third to Silence. He has been placed at his only two starts, is an improving type and is ready to win. Star Galaxy’s effort to win on debut after bungling the start was exceptional. Lipizzan is racing well but 1200m in heavy conditions will be a test for her. did a professional job to win at Warwick Farm and is underrated.

Dufficy: I like one of the Godolphin quartet in Evict. I like what I see from him at the trials, and he has had plenty of them so he is well educated for his debut, plus Brenton Avdulla is a positive booking. Last Starfighter is the danger. His slow beginning at Rosehill was very costly and the blinkers go on which should make a difference. Star Galaxy had plenty to do on debut but managed to get the job done and Lipizzan is a very fit filly with no weight who makes her own luck.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Last Starfighter $3.50-$3.20 ($1,000 @ $3.50), Music Addition $17-$9 ($500 @ $10, $400 @ $9.50, $200 @ $9)

EVEREST: INGLIS SWOOP ON SPRINTER

WINNER: BEADMAN FINDS HIS RHYTHM IN BLUE

R2 (12pm): HYLAND EOFY SALE HCP (1200m)

Thomas: Ghostly may not have beaten much at Canterbury but he won very easily, showing good acceleration over the final 200m. He has had a month between runs but had a barrier trial last week and could not have been more impressive beating Tessera. Ghostly is in the zone, he handles wet tracks and can win again. I liked the run of Peaceful Sea first-up and she is a lightweight chance. Calanda is the best horse in the race but has to shoulder 61kg on a heavy track.

Dufficy: I agree, I’m with Ghostly. It was as soft as you like when he won at Canterbury a month ago and his barrier trial effort last week was very good. He is at the top of his game. The Pharoah has ability and has trialled well going into this race. Suspenders is another who has looked good at the trials and can improve.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Calanda $9-$7-$5.50 ($350 @ $9, $500 @ $7)

R3 (12.35pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1400m)

Thomas: I keep missing Test The World and I concede she is in super touch. You can’t knock a filly who has won four in succession but she is up to 1400m and has to carry 59.5kg here. I felt, at the odds, Reiby Rampart can run very well. She was game at Rosehill last start when second to Cottage and is nicely weighted here. She can race up on the speed and prove hard to run down. Heavenly Anna loves wet tracks at Randwick but the 61kg is a big leveller.

Dufficy: I’m with you again, Ray. I’ve also been on the wrong side of the fence with Test The World who just keeps winning but I do like Reiby Rampart. She toughed it out well when second to Cottage at Rosehill, she is adaptable and I’m happy to be with her at the odds. Test The World has a tremendous will to win but is up in weight and distance. Heavenly Anna is paying the price for her good form and has to shoulder that big weight.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Test The World $3.60-$3.40-$3.20 ($600 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.60, $350 @ $3.40)

R4 (1.10pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1200m)

Thomas: I like Nictock. He won his first three starts then struck a wet track for the first time in his career and was very game when third to Clipper in a Highway two weeks ago. Nictock is fitter now and will improve off his last start run. Conniving led for a long way at Randwick last start and Bulala’s first-up win was exceptional. Atlantic Sentinel won well at Canberra last start and is drawn to get the gun run.

Dufficy: Nictock should have scope for improvement after his good first-up third to Clipper two weeks ago. I don’t think there is a lot of pressure upfront and I can see Nictock sliding across from his wide draw and settling on speed. Conniving is the danger. She is racing well and has her hoof on the till. Bulala’s first-up win was an absolute beauty and although I don’t know how strong the opposition was, he must be respected. Barricade has looked a different horse at his last two starts.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nictock $5-$3.50-$2.70 ($250 @ $5, $500 @ $3.50)

Sir Bacchus drops back to his best distance on Saturdayand will be hard to beat in the Winter Dash. Picture: Simon BullardSource:News Corp Australia

R5 (1.45pm): RON FINEMORE HCP (2400m)

Thomas: I have come back to Collateral. I know he has to deal with a sharp rise in trip but he is in such rare form. He ran down Carzoff fair and square at Rosehill last week. I know he has to deal with a quick back-up and his first attempt at 2400m but he is rock-hard fit and in such rare form. Richard of Yorke has to come back from 3200m but he is a tough stayer, Danjeu is fitter now but the heavy track isn’t his preferred racing surface, and Quartermaster is a stayer in career-best form.

Dufficy: I’m with Danjeu. I may have gone off a run too soon last start but I’m prepared to give him another chance. He has Rachel King and John Thompson in his corner, and the apprentice rider and trainer are in great form. Collateral is absolutely flying and is the obvious danger, although he is getting out to 2400m for the first time and that is a whole new pain barrier. I’m interested in the Melbourne raider Northern Journey as he enjoys wet tracks. Richard Of Yorke is coming off a 3200m run, which is tricky, but he is racing well and is the only go-forward horse.

R6 (2.25pm): RACING TO WIN HCP (1600m)

Thomas: I’m worried about the early race tempo as my two top selections Berry Delicious and Old North are backmarkers. But, I do feel with even luck Berry Delicious is ready to win. She has had three runs back from a spell, they have been full of merit, and she didn’t have much luck at Doomben last start. The 1600m tests her but she is very good on wet tracks. Old North showed something like his best form last start and if his mind is on the job, he could blow this field away. Sultan Of Swing is a good lightweight chance and Marenostro looks hard to beat as he is a superior wet-tracker.

Dufficy: You have hit the nail on the head with concerns about the tempo — that is the story of this race. I’m with the freshened Marenostro who has looked very good in two recent barrier trials and he is a proven mudlark. At least you know he can be ridden forward which will be to his advantage in this race. Berry Delicious is likeable but she hasn’t won for nearly two years. Old North has a question mark on his ability to settle but that was a much better run last start and Liapari is fit and on the quick back-up with a win to his name.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Liapari $4-$4.20 ($630 @ $4.20)

Marenostro has impressed in two recent trials and loves the wet. Picture: Simon BullardSource:News Corp Australia

R7 (3.05pm): WINTER DASH (1200m)

Thomas: Sir Bacchus was terrific in the Luskin Star Stakes at Scone behind Clearly Innocent then he was unlucky not to win at Rosehill over 1400m. He is coming back to 1200m but this is his optimum racing distance and he is very effective on soft tracks. This is his race, Ronnie. Tessera can be excused his Eagle Farm flop, Kudero is racing in the best form of his career, and Inz’n’out is peaking now after two runs from a spell. But I’m very keen on Sir Bacchus.

Dufficy: I’m with you — Sir Bacchus is back to his best distance and he is racing very well. Usually the At Sea Handicap and June Stakes is the right formline for this race but I’m convinced Sir Bacchus is the horse to beat here. I don’t want the track to be too heavy and as his race is later in the afternoon, hopefully we get a drying day which hopefully gives the track a chance to improve. Tessera will improve — we have seen a number of horses do that after failing at Eagle Farm — and he rates as the big threat. I also feel Inz’n’out is close to his best.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sir Bacchus $3.60-$4 ($600 @ $4), Tessera $7.50-$3.60-$3.40 ($300 @ $7.50, $300 @ $6.50, $250 @ $5, $500 @ $4.40, $600 @ $4, $2,000 @ $3.60)

R8 (3.45pm): PROFESSIONALS TAMWORTH HCP (1400m)

Thomas: Clear The Beach had to do plenty of work from a wide barrier last start and his effort to run second on a very heavy track to the mudlark Stella Ombra at Randwick was very good. He goes to 1400m for the first time but he has been improved by two runs from a spell and he should be hard to beat. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained duo of Wild ‘n’ Famous and Level Eight both look very well placed and Pelethronius enjoys wet tracks and is in winning form.

Dufficy: I see no reason to jump off Clear The Beach. I feel he will run the 1400m as he is a stronger horse this preparation. There is not a lot of pressure upfront in this race and the Randwick 1400m is not taxing. Imperator Augustus is racing in top form, he has no weight on his back with Brenton Avdulla to ride, and he enjoys wet tracks. Pelethronius has been untouchable on wet tracks this campaign and Level Eight is going well and does have the blinkers back on.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pelethronius $8-$6.50-$5.50 ($750 @ $7)

R9 (4.25pm): JACKSON PASTORAL GUYRA HCP (1000m)

Thomas: Isorich always goes around at big odds but invariably runs a competitive race. He has drawn an ideal barrier, will enjoy the run of the race and he handles wet tracks. At $17, he is a good each-way gamble. Sangiovese is back in winning form and this is her best distance, Star Crossed is a promising young sprinter and will be hard to beat if he gets a run, and Minnesota has been improved by two runs from a spell and she does handle soft tracks well.

Dufficy: The toughest race of the day. I’m praying for scratchings as I like two emergencies — Star Crossed and Argent D’Or. I was really taken by Star Crossed’s trials and what he lacks in experience he makes up for in talent. Argent D’Or produced an eye-catching trial behind Ghostly and he can charge home fresh. If there is pressure on upfront early, King Darci will be finishing hard and Sangiovese is off a heavy-track win, is at her best at 1000m and the stable is flying.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: King Darci $8.50-$7 ($200 @ $8.50, $500 e/w @ $7/$2.50)

DOOMBEN

R7 (3.57pm): TATT’S TIARA

Thomas: The final Group 1 race of the season and it is wide open. I thought Kinshachi can run a race at $21. She probably should have won at Ipswich last week, she is drawn perfectly and will be very competitive. In Her Time was outstanding in the Stradbroke and just needs luck to go her way for a chance from her wide barrier. Nancy has had no luck and is a definite chance. Bonny O’Reilly, Prompt Response and Eckstein also have strong claims.

Dufficy: Most of the early speed is among the emergencies so if we don’t get many scratchings then I can see In Her Time gliding across under her own steam. She should have won the Stradbroke in my opinion and this is the same track and distance, she is third-up and at her peak. French Emotion was a hidden run the other day and Hugh Bowman sticks. She is the best long shot. Prompt Response doesn’t know how to run a bad race, while Eckstein has really come of age now and is in winning form.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: In Her Time $3.50-$3.30-$3.10 ($4,000 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3.20), French Emotion $23-$26- $21 ($500 @ $26), Bonny Oreilly $8-$9, Nancy $13-$12, Miss Gunpowder $11-$12

DUFF’S BEST BETS

BEST BET

Race 2, No. 3 — GHOSTLY

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No. 2 — MARENOSTRO

Boo Bailey's cartoon tip for RandwickSource:Supplied

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S BEST BETS

KEMBLA

BEST BET: CHILLI BEAUTY (Race 8, No. 7)

Is trained by Gwenda Markwell who rarely fails to train at least one winner when racing is at home at Kembla. This mare has raced exclusively at Kembla in her 11 starts for four placings and is absolutely dying for the step up to the mile.

NEXT BEST: IT’S A NEW DAY (Race 6, No. 5)

Is another of the Markwell string. A son of Domesday, he made ground from the back to finish 2-lens second first-up over 1200m. Strips fitter and looking for 1400m now.

VALUE: MOHICAN (Race 2, No. 2)

Is a first starter bred to get over a trip but he did look pretty sharp when placed in his 800m heat at Goulburn in March. Not a strong line-up. Monitor market moves.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: CHAD LEVER

Lever won the TAB Jockey’s Challenge last weekend and he’ll be well in the market again thanks to an enviable book of rides, including four for Markwell.

SUGGESTED BETS

Quinella — Race 2, Nos. 1 and 2

Daily Double — 1st leg (5), 2nd leg (7)

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,2,3

Race 6: 1,4,5

Race 7: 2,3,7,8

Race 8: 7

TAMWORTH

BEST BET: TIMES TICKING (Race 5, No. 4)

Has only managed four wins from 34 starts but she has been placed 13 times which gives her a slightly above 50 per cent ‘pay off’ for her supporters. She was good first-up and has placed five from seven at this trip.

NEXT BEST: KENNY SUCCEED (Race 6, No. 4)

Tamworth galloper who has won two from five over this same track and distance. Comes through a very strong form race.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray and Duff