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Posted: 2017-06-19 20:02:32

Just have a look at the chart below for an example of what a relentless bull market looks like.

It’s the Nasdaq 100, an index that tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial stocks listed on the Nasdaq index, encompassing the likes of tech heavyweights such as Apple, Amazon, Ebay and Google, among others.

It’s been on quite a run, adding over 466% from the depths of the Great Recession, or the Global Financial Crisis as it is known in Australia, back in late 2008.

It’s been a remarkable, relentless grind higher with even the smallest pullback brought by investors, as was the case last week.

That tongue-in-cheek tweet from a favourite Twitterer of ours, @RampCampitalLLC, was in response to a drop of 4.5% in the index earlier this month.

That decline, as has been the case on countless occasions beforehand, has been subsequently bought with the index adding 1.6% on Monday alone, led by a surge in Apple’s share price.

The bullish price action, not only recently but over the past nine years, has got some questioning what, if anything, will derail the rally.

While the price action is undeniably bullish, contrast that to the chart below from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BAML).

It’s the bank’s latest survey of global fund managers for June, asking them how they see current valuations for US and global internet stocks.

Expensive is the most common answer by some margin at 57%, with “bubble like” taking out second spot at 18%.

Combined, they account for 75% responses, overshadowing the 15% who see current valuations as fair, or in the case of the remaining 1%, cheap.

What gives?

Why, if most think that they’re expensive or bubble like, does the Nasdaq continue to grind higher, seemingly setting fresh record highs each and every month?

Yes, this is only one survey, but those who participate managed a whole lot of money; some $596 billion to be precise.

It is unusual situation, and one that suggests the rally may, and we emphasise that word, be running out of buyers should the views of these money mangers be reflected by the broader investment community.

Indeed, helping to cement that view further, of those who were surveyed by BAML, 38% said that being positioned “long Nasdaq” was currently the most crowded trade in their opinion.

If the index is deemed to be expensive or worse, and market positioning is viewed as being extremely one-sided, it does suggests there’s an increased risk that a correction or something more substantial may eventuate.

One for the contrarians, or perhaps those thinking of taking some cash off the table, to ponder.

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