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The Tiwi Islands are on alert as a cyclone watch has been issued for a tropical low in the Arafura Sea.
Forecasters from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said the weather system was expected to develop into a category one tropical cyclone early on Tuesday morning, and if so, it would be named Cyclone Frances.
"Currently we have a tropical low situated in the Arafura Sea and we are expecting this tropical low to develop into a tropical cyclone late Monday night, [and] into Tuesday morning," forecaster Laura Boekel said.
It is not forecast to make landfall, but rather track south-west past the northern coast of the Tiwis, bringing heavy rainfall and gale-force winds.
The Tiwi Islands are expected to bear the brunt of the bad weather, but further south, most of the Top End — including Darwin — could see 100 to 200 millimetres of rain over two to three days.
"Tuesday [and] Wednesday will be our wettest days, [because] the low's at its closest then, so looking at much cooler, wet days on those days until it moves away into the Timor Sea," senior forecaster Graeme King said
After the possible cyclone passes the Tiwi Islands, it is expected to develop into a category two system and move over the north of Western Australia.
Despite a soggy start to the week, Mr King said dryer weather across the Top End, including Darwin, should return by Good Friday.
"The low moves away through the Timor Sea during the middle of the week, as it moves away the weather over the Top End should settle down," he said.
"So hopefully by the Easter long weekend the Top End should be back to fairly quiet weather, so it might actually work out [to be] a very good weekend."
It is currently the fourth wettest wet season the Top End has ever recorded at 2,378 millimetres, but the next few days could push Darwin further up the charts.
"If we do get a significant amount of rain we can see a podium finish for Darwin, so third or second," Ms Boekel said.
Topics: cyclones, cyclone, storm-event, storm-disaster, darwin-0800, nt
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