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Posted: 2017-03-17 05:59:32

Elon Musk's dramatic intervention into South Australia's energy crisis has enthralled the media and politicians of all persuasions (including, weirdly, the Ukrainian Prime Minister).

But for many battle-hardened short sellers – including a string of Australian fund managers – it did little more than elicit a smirk. That's because they have seen this type of thing before.

Musk, an enigmatic 45-year-old South African-born billionaire – who wants to colonise Mars and thinks we might be living in a computer simulation – is the greatest showman in tech, an industry renowned for its CEO showmanship.

So when Atlassian co-CEO Mike Canoon-Brookes publicly dared him to commit to a vague boast made earlier in the week by his cousin (Tesla's battery boss Lyndon Rive), Musk was never going to say no.

"I think it was classic Musk," says Regal Funds Management senior analyst Omkar Joshi. "That's what he does. He goes in and talks things up and capitalises on any situation to promote the brand, himself and the company. And once he runs out of steam, he moves on to the next thing." 

The thing is, Tesla's share price and lofty market valuation rely, to some extent, on Musk's undeniable charisma and ability to get some investors to buy into his (admittedly impressive) long-term vision. Rather than, you know, actual financial fundamentals.

This has emboldened many short sellers – including Australian fund managers – to target the company. About 26 per cent of shares in Tesla's free float have been sold short, according to Bloomberg – the highest among Nasdaq 100 constituent companies.

"Elon has got to be credited with building a very sizeable and so far successful business that is a pioneer in several spaces," says Tom King, from Nanuk Asset Management, a sustainability themed fund which has a small short position in Tesla.

"He is a world leader in terms of thinking and acting on these secular shifts in technology, and he believes in the importance of them succeeding for the future of the planet.

"But if you work out what's implied by the current share price, that is substantial profit growth, and there are some significant challenges to achieving that."

The quality of Tesla's cars and batteries is not in dispute. The same can't be said for its finances.

Here's more at the AFR

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