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Posted: 2017-03-02 11:18:51

A slew of positive data this week is pointing to a continued pick-up in global growth, suggesting the euphoric market reaction to US President Trump's promised stimulus is only the start.

"Global growth does look to be picking up, but it doesn't seem to be coming directly from the prospect of Trump's policies," said Jonathan Loynes, chief economist at Capital Economics, at a conference in Sydney on Thursday.

Purchasing manager indices for the manufacturing sector, a key indicator of economic growth, were released around the world on Thursday, showing a rise in nearly all the major advanced and emerging economies.

Stock markets roared higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial average breaking through 21,000 points for the first time in the index's history and the ASX 200 enjoying its best day for 2017, up 1.3 per cent.

Australian manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in almost 15 years. China's official manufacturing PMI, as well as the private Caixin version, both rose more than expected and an acceleration in German inflation added to signs of growth momentum from all corners of the global economy.

The feeling is permeating into the Australian economy as well, with Wednesday's Australian print showing gross domestic product rose 1.1 per cent in the December quarter, after contracting 0.5 per cent in the previous three months.

Iron ore prices ended last year up 80 per cent higher than when they started it. Thermal coal prices were 75 per cent and coking coal was 220 per cent higher. As such, Australia could increase its export prices relative to its import prices, which improved the terms of trade by 20 per cent.

"This is a very big deal," said Capital Economics' chief Australian and New Zealand economist Paul Dales at the same conference. "It means more money is coming into the country, the full impact of which is yet to be felt. And it's going to show up somewhere. I think there is a real chance it will show up in real GDP and underlying inflation too."

As such, the firm expects similar positive growth announcements throughout the year, as a rise in terms of trade is usually followed by a rise in the growth rate in real domestic demand a few quarters later.

"The overwhelming feeling is positive," Karl Goody, investment adviser at Shaw and partners. "As long as Yellen keeps the same sort of stance, that's what investors want at the moment. There's a huge thirst and ultra-high demand from people with money trying to find a home. This is going to continue."

This pickup in corporate profitability is boosting capital spending, leading investors to believe business spending is driving the global growth story, rather than just roaring stock markets.

Investors are looking ahead to a speech by Chair Janet Yellen on Friday to reaffirm a view that interest rates are likely to go up this month. The odds for a Fed rate hike in two weeks swelled past 65 per cent.

However Mr Dales pointed out it was unlikely the Reserve Bank of Australia would follow the US Federal Reserve in raising rates at the same pace.

"Interest rates have already diverged between the two countries for the last 15 months," said Mr Dales. "And while wage growth is growing quickly and could go a long way to solve Australia's inflation problem, it depends a lot on how businesses will react."

But Mr Dales said Australian businesses were unlikely to increase spending, given existing spare capacity in the economy, meaning they didn't need to invest to meet demand.

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