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Posted: 2016-10-10 23:16:57

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts a very active 2016-17 season. Picture: Karratha Photographics

RESIDENTS in northern parts of the nation are being warned to prepare for a busy cyclone season with at least 11 storms expected to form.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s Climate Prediction Services Manager Dr Andrew Watkins said the very active season is due to neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

“This year we’re experiencing warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures around Northern Australia, and this will help to fuel the tropical cyclone season ahead,” Dr Watkins said.

“History shows that in an average season, about eleven cyclones form in the Australian region between November and April. On average, four of these will make landfall.”

Last year had the lowest number of tropical cyclones on record.

“It is highly unlikely Australia will see a cyclone season as quiet this year,” Dr Watkins said.

In the 2016-17 season outlook, the Bureau of Meteorology said Australia has a 67 per cent chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 33 per cent chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average.

Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.

Western Australia is expecting for at least two tropical cyclones to cross the coast this season.

BOM Spokesman, Neil Bennett, said there was a high prospect of more cyclones than last season, which was the least active on record, with only one battering the WA coast at the end of January as El Niño influenced weather patterns.

Western Australian residents are being warned of an above average cyclone season. Picture: Landgate/Himawari.

Western Australian residents are being warned of an above average cyclone season. Picture: Landgate/Himawari.Source:Supplied

“This season, we’re looking at it being more of a neutral phase, tipping towards its counterpart La Nina. And typically in La Nina situations, you’ll see an increase in tropical cyclones,” Mr Bennett said.

“On top of that, we’ve got incredibly warm ocean temperatures off WA’s north coast, so that fuel is ready to go. You just have to have the weather system that’s there to develop tropical cyclones.” The BOM is expecting about seven cyclones in WA’s northern regions, compared to an average of five, but most will fizzle out at sea.

Two cyclones are expected to cross the coast and one of them should be severe at category three or above.

A vehicle travels in Dampier, WA, ahead of the imminent arrival of Cyclone Glenda. Picture: File

A vehicle travels in Dampier, WA, ahead of the imminent arrival of Cyclone Glenda. Picture: FileSource:News Corp Australia

Mr Bennett said subsoil moisture levels were higher than normal, which was a particular concern as it could cause flooding, with rivers bursting their banks. The tropical cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30, but they could start from now, Department of Fire and Emergency Services assistant commissioner Graham Swift said, so communities should start preparing themselves.

He warned against the practice of cyclone parties, which was just an excuse to consume excessive amounts of alcohol, making people more vulnerable just when they should be protecting themselves.

A local resident walks through the main street of Tully in 2011 after Cyclone Yasi. Picture: Getty

A local resident walks through the main street of Tully in 2011 after Cyclone Yasi. Picture: GettySource:Getty Images

Up to eight cyclones could form off the Queensland coast this season, but only one or two are expected to cross the coast.

“We’re most likely to get anywhere between two and six cyclones in the Coral Sea and two cyclones in the Gulf of Carpentaria,” BOM Queensland director Bruce Gunn said.

“On average one in four cyclones that appear in the Coral Sea ends up crossing the coast, so there’s a good chance that we will see that during this season.”

In the Northern Territory, the outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 56 per cent chance of more tropical cyclones than average, and a 44 per cent chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average.

In an average year the NT typically experiences three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into WA or QLD.

About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the NT impact coastal regions.

A Storm rolling in over Darwin airport. Picture: Laura Campbell

A Storm rolling in over Darwin airport. Picture: Laura CampbellSource:Supplied

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