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Posted: 2016-09-21 14:30:00

Fears have been expressed that Islamic State will ‘resurface’ in Asia.

ISLAMIC State will ‘resurface’ as a jihadist force in South East Asia with Coalition forces including those from Australia not doing enough to seek political change in the Middle East and better engaging Russian forces in the region.

The British House of Commons Defence Committee has warned other Western governments while the gains by Coalition forces to eliminate Islamic State in Syria and Iraq were on track, the bigger picture strategy was being “undermined” by a failure to promote stability and reform in the Muslim world.

The cross-party Defence Committee report released yesterday found when Islamic State strongholds are eventually defeated in Syria the militants could resurface in Africa or South East Asia, increase its presence in Yemen and Sinai or be replaced in the Middle East by “other groups posing similar or even greater threats”.

It said that may leave Western Governments with the choice of putting up with repressive regimes like Syria’s Bashar al-Assad or extremist revolutionaries and “which of the unpalatable prospects poses the lesser threat to our national interests”.

Islamic State militants posing in Yarmouk, a suburb of Damascus, Syria.

Islamic State militants posing in Yarmouk, a suburb of Damascus, Syria.Source:Supplied

Australian intelligence agencies have already noted a marked increase in jihadist activity in South East Asia notably Indonesia where extremist sentiment was being fuelled from outside the country by militant groups in direct contact from Islamic State hierarchy in Syria.

This activity is expected to increase as Islamic State is defeated in the Middle East and look for new fertile ground to recruit such as in Indonesia and the Philippines which also has a considerable extremist element particularly in Mindanao with the Islamic State-linked Abu Sayef group. Geographically the Philippines is being seen as the ideal platform from which Islamic State could launch or support regional terror strikes.

News Corp Australia has learned Australian intelligence and law enforcement has dedicated considerable resources in recent times to looking at better liaison and assistance to local regional authorities in these countries over the emerging threat.

It has been determined that Islamic State’s overseas expansion now was aimed as much as being forced to shift its war from the Middle East as promoting the “perception of momentum” as part of its overall image management propaganda.

Intelligence has concluded: “The danger posed by the majority of these Islamic State-affiliated groups may be minimal at present, but the evidence presented to us suggests that, if unchecked, they could form yet another front in the battle against international Islamist terrorism”.

Jabhat al-Nusra senior member and former Sydney Sheikh Abu Sulayman al-Muhajir. Also known as Mostafa Mahamed and Mostafa Farag. Source: Twitter

Jabhat al-Nusra senior member and former Sydney Sheikh Abu Sulayman al-Muhajir. Also known as Mostafa Mahamed and Mostafa Farag. Source: TwitterSource:Twitter

Of particular concern to authorities is Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS, formally known as Jabhat al-Nusra Front, which has been al-Qaeda’s most successful affiliate and has now been deemed to have the potential to carry out global attacks; it has an Australian in its hierarchy in former Western Sydney man Mostafa Mohamad also known as Aby Sulayman al-Muhajir.

The conundrum for Coalition governments involved in the conflict in Syria and Iraq is the ungoverned spaces that will be created once Islamic State is defeated.

West intelligence has noted: “ Global terrorism trends indicate that, as in the case of al-Qaeda previously, pre-existing Islamist organisations will attach themselves to whichever militant network appears to be in the ascendant at any given time.”

The British Government parliamentary committee has flagged the lack of “grand plan” by Western governments to assist in a stable region with inclusive governance and noted Russia was a key regional player that needed to be better engaged in any Middle East strategy including in the current military phase.

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