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Posted: 2016-07-12 08:34:00

Malcolm Turnbull is victorious — but what does it mean for you? Picture: Braden Fastier

AFTER a painful nine weeks of campaigning and counting, the Coalition has finally triumphed — or at least, staggered over the line.

Now Malcolm Turnbull has formed government, we can make certain assumptions about Australia’s future, but not every election promise will necessarily come to pass.

With such a slim majority, the Prime Minister will be under pressure to change more controversial policies and bring in others that reflect the outcome.

But the vote may mean the country has to accept a few painful realities.

NBN DISAPPOINTMENT

When Bill Shorten asked viewers of news.com.au’s Facebook Live debate to hit “like” if they wanted fibre to the premises (FTTP), there was a resounding thumbs-up.

But the Coalition’s plan is to use a raft of different technologies in a bid to save on costs. It has been criticised for providing inferior results and being shortsighted.

While Labor’s strategy was set to be more expensive, the cost of the broadband network has already blown out to at least $56 billion, a lot higher than the $44.9 billion the Coalition once claimed.

Technology website ZDNet yesterday said the opportunity to change the mix of the National Broadband Network had passed. By the time the next election comes in 2019, the fibre to the node (FTTN) rollout will be almost complete, and impossible to stop.

When the Government came to power with Mr Turnbull as Communications Minister in 2013, it abandoned the FTTP rollout for a cheaper “multi technology mix” that predominantly relied on the pre-existing copper and Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (pay TV) networks owned by Telstra and Optus to make the final connection to the home.

It’s a decision that the original CEO of NBN Co. Mike Quigley recently referred to as a “colossal mistake”.

The copper network proved to be in a far worse state than predicted and the need to upgrade it led to further delays and cost blowouts. Soon, 38 per cent of connections in Australia will be based on long runs of copper.

Leaked documents allege the rollout is seriously delayed, and 40 FTTN areas were behind schedule. Worst of all are the fears the nation will spiral into further debt trying to patch up the mess.

Many Australians are likely to be stuck with a poor connection. Picture: Chris McCormack

Many Australians are likely to be stuck with a poor connection. Picture: Chris McCormackSource:News Corp Australia

MARRIAGE EQUALITY DOUBT

The Coalition went into the election promising a plebiscite on same-sex marriage by the end of the year, while Labor ran with the vow of a conscience vote in parliament.

The Opposition Leader has warned there are some areas where Labor will try to block legislation following the close result. Asked whether he would block the plebiscite, Mr Shorten said “let’s see if we can’t have a conscience vote in the Parliament first off.”

He added: “I remain completely committed to the view that the quickest and easiest way to deal with this debate on marriage equality is to have a parliamentary vote.”

There are concerns a plebiscite could give homophobic voices a platform.

If Mr Shorten brings a private member’s bill to push for a conscience vote in parliament, he may have the support of the Greens, Nick Xenophon and lower house independents.

Australian Marriage Equality has claimed there is now a “clear majority” of 81 House of Representatives votes in favour of same-sex marriage.

There’s also a possibility of Labor and the Greens getting a bill through the Senate, where the final makeup is still uncertain.

‘MEDISCARE’ FALLOUT

The Government’s election plans included keeping the freeze on the rebate paid to doctors until 2020, with doctors warning this could force them to charge patients up to $25 a visit, bulk bill fewer patients or reduce follow-up appointments.

It had also intended to scrap extra payments given to pathology and diagnostic companies, saying this hadn’t increased bulk billing, and to lift the cost of subsidised prescription medicines by $5 for general patients and 80c for concessions.

But after Labor’s privatisation scare campaign, it dumped its plan to talk to the private sector about running Medicare’s payment system.

It is possible it could make further concessions, after the close result made it clear the electorate wants the Government to prioritise healthcare and education alongside fiscal repair.

There are concerns the Coalition’s planned plebiscite would give homophobic voices a platform. Picture: Ellen Smith

There are concerns the Coalition’s planned plebiscite would give homophobic voices a platform. Picture: Ellen SmithSource:News Corp Australia

COMPANY TAX REFORM

Mr Shorten spent much of the campaign attacking the Prime Minister on his planned $50 billion corporate tax cut, to be rolled out over a decade.

The Government’s aim was to progressively reduce company tax rate to 25 per cent by 2026/27 for all companies, dropping rates to 27.5 per cent this financial year for businesses with annual turnover below $10 million.

Mr Turnbull has said he will push ahead with all of his 2016 budget, but he will face opposition from the Greens, who don’t support any cuts, and Labor, which only wants a 27.5 per cent rate for small businesses with a turnover of less than $2 million.

The Coalition may be able to squeeze this through the Senate with the help of Nick Xenophon and other crossbenchers.

FAMILY FEUD

The Government is facing dissent within its ranks over plans to save money by tightening superannuation tax concessions for the highest income earners.

But the real backdated policy problem, according to news.com.au’s political editor Malcolm Farr, is the retrospective cuts to Family Tax Benefit for low- and middle-income households.

As many as 130,000 single parents and grandparent carers could lose Family Tax Benefit B payments when their child reaches age six.

Labor is unlikely to be much help on this one, having proposed halving Family Tax Benefit A for 137,000 families when household income reached $100,000, losing about $366 in payments per child.

The Coalition will use the money saved to lift the cap on childcare subsidies for average income earners and raise it to $10,000 for those who earn above $185,000.

It also wants to crack down on “double dipping” with paid parental leave, but has so far been unable to get its plan through the Senate.

The plan is to “top up” any leave provided by employers so new parents get a total of 18 weeks of paid leave. Currently parents can get 18 weeks of leave paid at the minimum wage on top of any leave that employers provide.

AND MORE...

There are plenty more questions over which election promises will really happen.

• ABCC: The Government called the double dissolution election after failing to get its Australian Building and Construction Commission through the Senate, so it will be trying again on that front.

Its chances look slim however, with the upper house appearing even more fragmented and Labor and the Greens opposing the bill.

• Housing: The Coalition also said it would focus on increasing housing supply, with a Smart Cities Plan to look at ways to raise money for projects like road and rail with the aim of creating 30-minute cities. It has ruled out changes to negative gearing, but Labor may continue pushing for restrictions.

• Environment: Mr Turnbull’s goal is to cut emissions by 26 to 28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 — compared with Labor’s more ambitious goal of 45 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.

Its Direct Action scheme will pay polluters to change the way they do things. It’s pledged to get 20 per cent of the country’s electricity from renewables by 2020 (where Labor wanted 50 per cent by 2030) and committed $210 million to the Great Barrier Reef, plus $1 billion over 10 years from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation towards improving water quality.

Before any of that, the Prime Minister will be focusing on choosing his Cabinet and getting back to the normal.

Then will see what all this really means for the country.

emma.reynolds@news.com.au

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