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How seriously should such threats be taken? In many respects, much of this is not a surprise; North Korea seems determined to grow its missile capabilities. The difficulty, of course, has always been separating rhetoric and reality with a nation from which it is notoriously difficult to secure concrete information.
Security issues
Media reports indicate the officer may have been in charge of espionage operations in South Korea, and he is believed to be the highest-ranking military leader to have ever defected to the South. With all this in mind, it is clear why he could prove to be valuable.
It is difficult to obtain reliable insights information into the inner workings of the North Korean government given the opaque nature of the regime. Access to a high-level military official familiar with the North Korean system and leadership will therefore be an important asset on military and intelligence matters. In short, the defection of such a high-level member of the regime is both a serious security breach and an embarrassment for Pyongyang.
But the announcement of the colonel's defection is part of a larger story. The public acknowledgment of defections is unusual, and government policy has typically been to keep these events quiet so as not to endanger remaining family members in the North (or other defectors that might be en route or considering such a move).
Instability on the horizon?
Critics say the revelations are political and intended to influence the upcoming National Assembly elections by highlighting security issues. They argue that by highlighting the supposed success of recent sanctions, the government is hoping to energize conservative support for the ruling Saenuri Party.
Still, whatever the truth behind the debate over the release of information, the escape of such a prominent military and intelligence official is important. The colonel will not only be able to furnish valuable information on military operations and tactics, but may also provide better clarity into the strategic thinking of North Korea's leadership. Moreover, these defections might start to reveal more about elite behavior in North Korea. Could such defections, for example, be early indicators of political instability?
The North Korean regime will undoubtedly remain a serious security and intelligence challenge for the U.S. and regional allies like South Korea, and the information provided by defectors of all levels cannot be taken at face value -- it must be examined carefully. But the type of information that could potentially be gleaned from the sources revealed this past week may be one of the few windows we have to improving our understanding of one of the most isolated nations in the world.