HE has hailed Vladimir Putin as a leader who knows what he’s doing, is fed up with some of America’s closest allies and opposes free trade: Donald Trump could be a President who changes the world order as Australia knows it.
When the Republican frontrunner for the presidential nomination was asked this week who he consults primarily on foreign policy, he had a simple answer: himself.
“My primary consultant is myself and I have a good instinct for this stuff,†he told CNN.
He then added, as though in afterthought, that he did also listen to “a lot of peopleâ€.
It was an answer that flew in the face of Trump’s backers who have long brushed off criticism of his lack of political experience by saying the billionaire would be guided by policy experts.
Trump has a very particular view of America’s place in the world order - one that has been dubbed “neoisolationist†in some quarters.
AMERICA THE MIGHTY
He believes he can restore glory to America - in short, make it more wealthy and more powerful.
At the heart of it, the businessman sees America as being ripped off, or as he says, “loosing badly†to it’s allies, it’s trading partners and of course, it’s enemies.
A Trump world order looks something like this. Firstly, trade barriers go up - China is slapped with a 45 per cent tax on goods sent to the US and the TPP is scuttled. Secondly, Trump pushes back on US allies he believes don’t give as much to America as it does to them - he’s already flagged South Korea, Europe and Japan. Thirdly, he goes harder in the Middle East - more ground troops, the return of waterboarding torture techniques and a greater effort to take oil out from under ISIS’s nose.
Trump has made no secret of any of these policies. His anti-trade views and his ferocity on ISIS are capturing everyday Americans en masse.
But what do these positions mean for the rest of the world?
TRUMP: AN INTERNATIONAL RISK
An Economist Intelligent Unit Report - a global forecasting service linked to the The Economist magazine - this week ranked a Trump presidency as one of the top risks facing the world.
The report, which described a Trump presidency as a “moderate probability, high impact†event flagged two key themes it viewed as problematic: hostility to free trade and a hostility to the Middle East and Mexico.
“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war - and at the least scupper the TPP,†the report read.
“His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on on muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.â€
AUSTRALIA IN THE FALLOUT ZONE
These perceived risks all swirl around Australia as much as they do any other nation of the world - the Federal Government is desperate to see the ambitious TPP ratified and as a close ally of the US, any escalation of terror threat would impact at home.
However, while Trump has made it clear he is keen to re-level the playing field with US allies, Australia may be safe on that front.
Professor of Political Science at Duke University and former employee of the Bush Administration Peter Feaver said despite Trump’s brewing war with America’s allies, Australia could be one of Trump’s favourites.
“Australia might be the rare ally he might say something favourable about,†Professor Feaver said.
“Australia has the distinction of being the most reliable ally in terms of fighting war shoulder to shoulder with Americans - I don’t think there’s another country that’s been in as many conflicts on the side of the US as Australia.
“Trump is someone who believes that allies take advantage of the US. If you believe our allies take advantage of us, the ally that is hardest to make that case for is Australia.â€
Professor Feaver said the US presence in Darwin was relatively small and would be unlikely to be an immediate priority for Trump, despite his dislike for expensive military posts around the world.
THE PRICE OF FREE TRADE
The other Trump policy that could instantly impact Australia is his disdain for free trade. He has flagged slapping a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and rails against the TPP - the ambitious free trade agreement Australia wants to get across the line.
“The TPP is a horrible deal,†Trump has repeated ad nauseam on the campaign trail.
It’s a world view also articulated by democratic frontrunner Hilllary Clinton.
Australian Trade Minister Steve Ciobo met with Obama’s chief trade negotiator Michael Froman last month, and was assured there was still hope for the deal.
Mr Ciobo has worked hard behind the scenes on the deal, along with new US ambassador Joe Hockey and former Trade Minister Andrew Robb.
It is understood Australia would consider sending a contingent to negotiate directly with members of congress if they were summonsed.
Trump has stormed to victory in blue-collar states like Michigan on a strong anti-free trade message, bolstering the case of anti-TPP congressmen.
THE MANY FACES OF TRUMP
Professor Feaver noted that it’s difficult to know “which Trump†the world would get if he won the presidency, because the ferocity of the nomination process encourages candidates to be their most extreme version of themselves.
“No one knows which president Trump will be President Trump,†Professor Feaver said.
“The optimistic scenario says Trump is part blank slate and part marketing genius - and he doesn’t believe what he’s saying now but he understands he has to say it to get elected. Once he is elected…he will want to write policies that will be successful.â€
Professor Feaver posited it was also possible that Trump was so driven by success that if he tried his policies and they failed he would adapt.
The “less optimistic†scenario, said Professor Feaver, was that the temperament of Trump on display so far continues into the administration and is reflected by his staff.
“In that scenario you get a very negative outcome,†he said. “Mr Trump will have many an hour to achieve mischief.â€
Only time will tell.