Terror next door ... Indonesian police take position behind a vehicle as they pursue suspects after a series of blasts hit the Indonesia capital Jakarta on January 14. Source: AFP

As with most of Islamic State’s outrageous acts, it’s all about sending a message.

Security analyst David Wells, in a commentary for the Lowy Institute, says he fears terrorism will continue to grab the headlines in 2016 as ‘Caliph Ibrahim‘ — Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi — seeks to compensate for his failings in Syria and Iraq.

“It appears that 2016 will follow 2015 as another year of terrorism, but perhaps on a larger scale,” Mr Wells states.

“Unfortunately, as military pressure on ISIS grows, and countermeasures prevent prospective foreign fighters reaching ‘the caliphate’, we are more likely to see attacks outside of Iraq and Syria.”

“Things might get worse before they get better.”

Last week’s terror attack in Jakarta, which killed eight — including five attackers — has the potential to be the first of a wave of such attacks, he says.

“Obviously Jakarta could have been a lot worse. A lot more destructive. The attackers weren’t that sophisticated and didn’t do all that great a job,” Mr Wells says.

More ominous, though, are the attackers’ potential ties to the Islamic State.

“The extent of these ties matters. If they result in the movement of men and expertise — and the money — ISIS has, that could be a potential game changer.”

Switching target ... An Indonesian police officers slings his automatic rifle over his head as he guards the Starbucks cafe where Thursday's attack took place in Jakarta. Source: APSource:AP

TACTICAL SHIFT

The ‘caliphate’ is down. But not out.

Its apocalyptic vision is faltering.

The cities of Kobane and Aleppo have fallen in Syria. Sinjar and Ramadi have been recaptured in Iraq. Morale is so low fighters have begun deserting the jihadist organisation’s black flag in droves.

And the bombs just keep raining down.

So why should Islamic State be interested in Indonesia while its own ‘borders’ are under intense attack in the Middle East?

This doesn’t mean the West’s approach in the Middle East is failing, he says.

“They are a terrorist group. But they are also trying to become a state. Ultimately if the caliphate is under threat they know they can fall back on terror,” Mr Wells said in an interview with News Corp.

“What they’re looking for is momentum to skew the news in a way that looks positive for them. We’ve seen that in the past week — with bombing in Baghdad an Syria. They can also point to advances in Libya and Sinai.”

It’s all about convincing its followers that the ‘Caliphate’ is still strong, and a cause worth fighting for.

ISIS seeks to do this through quick and easy successes which catch worldwide headlines.

Therefore terrorism.

“This type of attack, similarly to Paris or Mumbai, is particularly successful at achieving this aim with the uncertainty around the number of attackers, their targets, and its ongoing nature feeding a frenzy of speculation and worry,” he writes.

“It is this publicity that ISIS is so effective at generating, and that helps spread fear on a global scale.”

New caliphate claims ... A Muslim student attends an interfaith rally against radicalism, terrorism and drug abuse in Jakarta, Indonesia, yesterday. Indonesian police said they have arrested a number of people suspected of links to Thursday's bombings, the first major assault by militants in Indonesia since 2009. Source: APSource:AP

INDONESIAN ‘CALIPHATE’?

High-profile terror is a strategy that has worked well for Islamic State. The ‘caliphate’s’ propaganda successes has seen jihadist networks in Afghanistan and Africa shift abandon old allegiances and take up the black flag.

“ISIS has a declared intention to establish caliphates beyond the Middle East, provincial caliphates in effect. It has identified Indonesia as a location of its ambitions,” Attorney-General George Brandis last month told The Australian following a string of counter-terrorism raids on the island of Java.

The reality of such an ambitious declaration could be gauged by measuring Islamic State’s influence in the Jakarta attack: Was it simply inspired by ISIS propaganda? Or guided by Islamic State leaders?

Indonesian police have this weekend stated the Jakarta attackers received instructions and funding from Islamic State leaders in the Middle East.

A recent Strategic Studies Institute report found Islamic State has between 800 and 1000 fervent supporters in South Eastern Asia — with roughly 600 of those regarded as ‘combatants’.

While the ambition of establish a territorial caliphate in Asia in the same manner as the Middle East may seem farfetched, are local extremists nevertheless getting organised?

“Is it one network that can be disrupted by arrests, or is it a bigger problem?” he says. “If there is a formal affiliation or declaration with Islamic State, the concern is this will magnify the existing problems in Indonesia.”

Affiliation with ISIS may bring new funding as well as expose regional extremists to new tactics. It also may produce “a potentially increased focus on foreigners instead of security officials, and public demonstrations of brutality” Mr Wells says.

“Successful ISIS-inspired or directed attacks in South East Asia are not an inevitability. But unfortunately, further attempts to carry out such attacks probably are.”

@JamieSeidel