Victorians will have a hot or very hot Christmas Day, with 33 degrees forecast for Melbourne and baking temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s across much of the state's north and west.

The dry conditions, high temperatures and northerly winds of Christmas Day present the most challenging fire conditions of coming days, with winds of up to 40km/h forecast for Melbourne. Severe fire danger conditions will occur in the south-west, north-central and central (which includes Melbourne) regions. The rest of Victoria faces very high fire danger conditions.

But the state will get a significant reprieve from the hot weather on Boxing Day with widespread rainfall forecast and for Melbourne, a top of just 20 degrees.

Melbourne could have its wettest day in months, with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting possible rainfall of 10 to 40 millimetres on Boxing Day. It has also forecast a very high (90 per cent) chance of rain in Melbourne until noon, and a medium chance (50 per cent) of showers in the afternoon.

Advertisement

Senior meteorologist Phil King said it was likely to start raining in Melbourne from about 3am on Boxing Day, with thunderstorms likely. "It will be raining pretty heavily when people wake up, and then easing off later in the morning," he said.

"That change will have gone through during the morning period. And I think the rain is mainly going to be overnight and during the morning. I think by lunchtime we'll have seen the rain contract to the east of the state. We might see one or two showers hanging around Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but nothing too significant there. Most of the rain is going to be in the morning period of Boxing Day," he said.

In 2014 Melbourne recorded a Boxing Day maximum of 18.9 degrees.

The Boxing Day forecast will be considered closely by cricket administrators and cricket lovers. With the second Test between Australia and the West Indies scheduled to start at 10.30am, the forecast rain could delay the start of the match.

The Boxing Day rain and cool conditions are also likely to affect the plans of many Victorians holidaying along the Victorian coast, hoping for some beach-going weather, or at least dry enough conditions to send the kids outside.

Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley said the weather on Christmas Day would be the worst fire danger weather of coming days, but the conditions were not as bad as last weekend. He urged people travelling in fire-prone areas on Christmas Day afternoon to pay particular heed to the conditions and listen to the radio. "That will be the hottest part of the day, it'll be the windiest part of the day, therefore it's going to be the highest risk of fire part of the day," he said.

And he urged people holidaying in fire-prone areas over summer to check fire danger ratings daily, learn the name of the fire district they were staying in, be aware of the risk of fire in that area and in areas they travelled through.

He also encouraged them to research the local road network, familiarise themselves with key road names and establish whether they were staying in a location with a Neighbourhood Safer Place (NSP), and if so, to find out where it was and how to get there.