"The sharp jump in consumer confidence last week is a clear vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull," ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said. Photo: Andrew Meares
Malcolm Turnbull's ascension to Australia's top job has put a rocket under consumer sentiment, pushing it up 8.7 per cent in the latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence survey.
Tuesday's result, gleaned from a questionnaire on the first weekend after Tony Abbott's removal as prime minister, means the heavy, combined 7.1 per cent loss of the previous two weeks has been wiped out. It also puts the headline index above the long-run average.
The survey findings come on the same day a Newspoll, published by News Corp, showed the Coalition's primary vote up five points and Labor's down four. This gives the government the lead over the Opposition 51-49 on a two party preferred basis.
"The sharp jump in consumer confidence last week is a clear vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull," ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said.
Political events can have a major effect on consumer attitudes
" A similar surge in business confidence was evident when the Coalition won government in late 2013."Â
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And it's not only the main consumer confidence index that took heart from Mr Abbott's removal: views on economic conditions over the next year leapt 25.8 per cent, the second-largest one-week gain since the current series began in 2008.
Respondents were also more upbeat over their prospects during the next five years, with the sub-index climbing more than 13 per cent. This one still, however, lags the long-term average.
However, the good news may not last for Mr Turnbull, warned Mr Hogan.
"We believe the new Prime Minister's first 100 days in office will be essential to formulating a new narrative for the economy that underpins confidence in the economic outlook," he said.
"Expectations are clearly high, not unlike when the Coalition initially won power, and the community will be sensitive to disappointment on this front.
"A clear economic strategy is critical. Otherwise, consumer caution and gloom in the long-term outlook could easily re-emerge, given weak wages growth and sub-par global economic activity," Mr Hogan said.