Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in 2011. Photo: AP

Moscow: Russia is sending signals to the US and Saudi Arabia that it may allow Syria's embattled leader Bashar al-Assad to be eased out of power as it seeks to forge a united front against Islamic State and retain influence in the region, officials and Syrian opposition leaders said.

Officials from the three countries, as well as from the opposition, have been negotiating possible terms for sidelining Dr Assad since at least June, when Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Saudi King Salman's son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed, they said. Saudi Arabia is Dr Assad's main regional enemy, while Russia is his long-time ally. Since then, Russia's whirlwind diplomacy has brought key officials from across the region to Moscow for talks.

Syria's civil war has traumatised the Middle East, spilling into neighbours and enabling the rise of IS amid the turmoil. The latest Russian-backed efforts to end the conflict come as its fallout spreads westwards, with hundreds of thousands of migrants seeking refuge in the European Union.

Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to a question during a meeting with supporters in Moscow. Photo: AP

Like every other aspect of the war in Syria, though, Russia's policy isn't straightforward. US and Russian officials say they're weighing a transition plan that would strip Dr Assad of power while he remained interim head of state.

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"There's a convergence on the threat of ISIS," Paul Salem, vice-president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said by phone, using an acronym for Islamic State. "This convergence wasn't there when they last tried diplomacy two years ago."

Yet at the same time, Russia is ramping up military aid to Syria, home to its only naval base outside the former Soviet Union. Big questions remain, the US official stressed, including whether Mr Putin really is prepared to see Dr Assad marginalised and, if so, whether he can persuade him to go quietly.

US intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia is set to start flying combat missions from a new air hub inside Syria, other American officials said. Mr Putin may be betting that an increased military presence will either help Dr Assad stay in power or give Russia more sway in influencing the outcome of the crisis if the Syrian leader is forced out.

Moscow's easing of previously unfettered support for Dr Assad followed reports from world leaders who have met recently with Mr Putin and said they sensed he may be losing confidence in Dr Assad's ability to defeat the various opposition forces arrayed against him.

Some veteran observers of Mr Putin's shifting tactics in the Syrian crisis say the Kremlin's increasingly discordant diplomatic and military manoeuvers might be meant to keep Western adversaries guessing.

"He's in a box, and he's terrified about some of the situations he has unleashed that have gotten beyond his control," Andrew Weiss, a former White House adviser on Russia during the Clinton administration and now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said of Putin. "His usual tactic in these situations is to do something that will throw everyone off balance."

IS controls as much as half of the country, while rebel militias backed by the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar are gaining ground, leaving only about a fifth under the government's firm control, according to Amos Gilad, a senior Israeli defence official. That area is home to most of the population, though, including key urban centres such as the capital, Damascus.

If Mr Putin continues to escalate his support for Dr Assad, the Saudis, who are suspicious of the Russian leader's intentions, will respond by stepping up their aid to the rebels, according to Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi commentator and former government adviser.

"The fact that the Russians are sending servicemen to Syria now proves that it's not diplomacy, it's war," he said.

Publicly, Russia remains far apart from the US and its allies on Syria. Asked if Russia would accept Dr Assad staying on in a purely ceremonial role, Mr Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that "only the Syrian people can decide the fate of Syria, not some outside countries".

If the gap is narrowing behind the scenes, it may largely be due to IS. Mr Putin came to power fighting Islamist separatists in the Caucasus, and has reason to fear the rise of jihadists in Syria. Their numbers include about 1000 Russian speakers, Elena Suponina, a Moscow-based Mideast expert, has estimated, raising the threat of attacks inside Russia.

Mr Putin is more interested in defeating IS and retaining influence in the Middle East than he is in propping up an increasingly weak ally, according to the Soufan Group, a US security consultancy run by a former counterterrorism official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The US-Russian overlap may help shape a new road map put forward by the UN's special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura. It calls for reducing Dr Assad's role to "protocol" only, London-based al-Hayat newspaper reported on September 1.

The UN envoy is assembling working groups of Syrian government and opposition figures for a process dubbed Geneva 3, after two inconclusive rounds of talks in the Swiss city.

While the former Cold War foes have different priorities in Syria, they haven't always been at loggerheads. Mr Putin averted US air strikes on Syria in 2013 by convincing Dr Assad to hand over his chemical weapons. In March, Secretary of State John Kerry gestured toward the Russian position when he said the US and its allies would have to negotiate with Dr Assad.

But the signs that Mr Putin is hedging his bets are still ringing alarm bells in Washington. Russia's naval facility is just down the coast from the Assad family's heartland, Latakia, which has seen an influx of Russian materiel and advisers in recent weeks. Two Russian planes carrying 80 tonnes of humanitarian aid arrived in Latakia on Saturday, Syria's official SANA news agency said.

US President Barack Obama said Russia's deepening involvement will make it harder to dislodge Dr Assad and find a political solution to the war.

"The strategy they're pursuing now, doubling down on Assad, I think is a big mistake," Mr Obama told military personnel at Fort Meade, Maryland, on Friday.

Russia insists its personnel are in Syria only to help government troops operate the weapons being supplied, though it doesn't rule out taking unspecified "additional measures" as required.

"The Russians are laying the groundwork for some kind of transition," said Theodore Karasik, a UAE-based geopolitical analyst. "It's just not going to match what the US envisions."

Bloomberg, TNS

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