DEFENCE Minister Kevin Andrews wasted no time expressing his desire to stay in his job under new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Apart from running for the deputy leadership to show his new boss that he would be willing and happy to work closely with him, Andrews and his staff are telling anyone who will listen that 10 defence ministers in 18 years would not be a good look.
The recent First Principles Review of defence identified what it called “leadership churn†(including nine ministers in 18 years) as one of the three root causes preventing the organisation from mending its broken culture.
“The frequent turnover in ministers and secretaries, in particular, does not enable effective leadership of change,†the review said.
“The state of the organisation is symptomatic of one that has not been materially reshaped for over a decade and has been allowed to drift.â€
Starting with Ian McLachlan in the first Howard Ministry, the defence portfolio has been seen as either the kiss of death or a retirement post for outgoing and loyal servants.
Apart from Brendan Nelson and the unfortunate Senator David Johnston, there have been few genuine military enthusiasts on the list of ex-ministers.
And looking back over that list it is difficult to identify many, apart from Nelson and Labor Senator John Faulkner, who have made a genuine impact on a portfolio often controlled and run by the PM’s office or the top brass and powerful mandarins.
Kevin Andrews is regarded as a steady pair of hands, but a man with little interest in the subject matter who is unlikely to stamp any kind of authority or strategic vision on the defence organisation.
However given that Prime Minister Turnbull has to make some radical changes in his economic line-up he will be seeking stability elsewhere in the cabinet and that might save Kevin Andrews.
The crucial National Security Committee of Cabinet would also be very inexperienced with a new Defence Minister.
What also works in Mr Andrews’ favour is the Coalition’s first Defence White Paper due to be released within weeks.
That job will fall to the new PM and it would be a big ask to have a new minister up to speed and able to brief his boss in such a limited time frame.
The other option would be to delay the process and place it and other big decision such as the future submarines into the “wait and see†tray.
If the Coalition wants the White Paper out then the sensible approach would be to leave Mr Andrews in the job at least until the next election so the new strategy can be bedded down by the minister who owns it.
Strategic expert at the Australian National University Hugh White said that unlike prime ministers Abbott, Rudd or Gillard, Malcolm Turnbull had articulated a distinctive set of views on foreign and defence policy.
“He is much more attentive to the rise of China and he has specifically questioned whether sticking to the same old policies is a good idea,†Professor White said.
He described Mr Turnbull as a very serious policy activist — obsessive, even — who wouldn’t tolerate ministerial inertia.
“The defence portfolio has destroyed every ministerial career since Kim Beazley. But it has become an old man’s job so he might leave Andrews there.â€
Apart from settling on his ministry, Mr Turnbull will have two big issues to quickly deal with in the defence area.
The first is the substance of Australian strategic policy regarding China and the United States and the second is balancing the budget while maintaining $100 billion worth of spending commitments to be contained in the White Paper. The first 10 years of these will be fully costed in the document.
Should Mr Turnbull decide that leaving one of Tony Abbott’s praetorian guards in place was a bridge too far then several candidates could vie for the defence job.
South Australian minister Christopher Pyne has made his pitch based on the upcoming future submarine build now likely to take place in his state given that any ‘‘captain’s pick†between Mr Abbott and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is null and void.
Other possibles might include Environment Minister and strategic expert Greg Hunt and Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane who is well qualified to manage the big projects ahead.