“This, in many ways, is existential for Korea,” Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said in an analysis for the think tank.
“We’ve been in this period for six months when the Trump administration has been moving 100 miles an hour, and South Korea has basically been stuck in neutral because they haven’t had a government.”
Supporters of Lee Jae-myung celebrate during the vote count near the National Assembly in Seoul.Credit: Bloomberg
On foreign policy, Lee has positioned himself as a centrist who has championed the US alliance as the backbone of the country’s national security, but has also spurned being forced to choose sides in the intensifying US-China rivalry. He also favours dialogue with the South’s longstanding nemesis in North Korea as the key to sustaining peace on the peninsula.
It marks a sharp break with Yoon, who had aligned the country more stridently with the US and adopted a confrontation posture with Pyongyang.
“Trilateral cooperation among Korea, the US and Japan is also important. But we cannot be unilaterally bound to those alone … we should also maintain amicable relations with China and Russia – trade with them, and cooperate with them,” Lee said during the campaign.
It’s a view that will rankle with foreign policy hawks in the Trump administration, which is considering withdrawing 4500 troops from South Korea and relocating them to the Indo-Pacific, which it sees as the critical arena for countering China.
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Lee takes office having what his predecessor sorely lacked – a huge majority of seats in the National Assembly to pass his government’s legislative agenda. He secured 49.42 per cent of the vote, putting him eight percentage points clear of his conservative rival Kim Moon-soo (41.15 per cent) and Yoon’s successor at the People Power Party.
The election was a testament to the resilience of South Korea’s democracy, with voter turnout hitting almost 80 per cent – the highest in nearly three decades – facilitating a peaceful transfer of power that many will hope draws the line under the chaos of past six months.
For weeks on end, tens of thousands of people rallied in the streets in protests that divided them sharply along generational and gender lines, in the lead up to a sensational storming of the presidential residence by police in February and Yoon’s arrest – the first time a sitting president has been arrested in the nation’s history.
But there are early questions about how Lee, who called the election a “judgement day” against his opponent and the People Power Party, will seek to enforce his pledge to “recover democracy for the country” in a political system that has a long track record of leaders exacting revenge on rivals.
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Lee himself is a divisive figure. He has been facing a raft of criminal trials, including charges of election law violations stemming from the 2022 presidential campaign, accusations he denies. These charges will dog his presidency, but it is possible he will be shielded from those process during his five-year term due to presidential immunity from criminal prosecution.
South Korea’s presidents have historically faced a torrid fate. Since 1980, two presidents have been impeached, four have been convicted on criminal charges after leaving office, and another killed himself while under criminal investigation.
Weighed down by his own legal baggage, Lee will be watching his back as he tries to lead his country forward out of the chaos.
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