Speaking to the National Association for Business Economics, Powell sounded more aggressive than his relatively hawkish press conference last week after the Fed hiked its benchmark rate by a quarter point. He said on Tuesday he’s prepared to consider half-point steps at the next few meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee to rein in inflation. “What would prevent us? Nothing: Executive summary,” Powell said, pushing an already hammered bond market lower.

Powell said last week the US labour market is strong to an unhealthy level, leaving little room for ambiguity about the priority now given to curbing inflation. It is strong: the jobless rate fell to less than 4 per cent last month and gains in payrolls were way above estimate. But Powell can’t afford to just worry about the US economy, even though that is the mandate given the Fed by Congress. As custodian of the world’s largest economy, and the planet’s reserve currency, he carries a larger burden. Many central banks look to the Fed for direction, if not guidance.

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Higher interest rates were coming before Putin began his assault on Ukraine. Monetary authorities began withdrawing accommodation last year, and some, like the Bank of England, lifted borrowing costs before the Fed. But Putin’s name is on most of the hikes to some degree; most say the attack on Ukraine is, at the very least, exacerbating price pressures. The recession, should it arrive, will have his initials somewhere on the page.

The Bank of England was rightly scolded for its communication fiascos in November when it appeared to signal, and then backed away, from a hike. More recently, the bank may be reading the hymn sheet a little better. Officials hiked this month, but began to soften their language. There may not be an enormous amount to come, was the import. The threats to growth appear to have registered in London.

Powell’s “executive summary” was awfully short and drew laughter from the audience. If he is wrong on the outlook, there will be less hilarity.

Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. Previously he was executive editor of Bloomberg News for global economics, and has led teams in Asia, Europe and North America.

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