All this personal chemistry, cozying-up bromance stuff didn't get them anywhere.
Jacob Kirkegaard, Peterson Institute for International Economics
In the past, Trudeau tried being a Trump whisperer. But his year of diligent appeasement ultimately failed. Tariffs hit Canada this week, along with everyone else. Trudeau has finally quit playing nice with Trump.
"I expect a very acrimonious summit," said Jacob Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "I expect nothing of substance to be agreed. In fact, I think the best you can hope for is for them to agree to continue talking."
Trudeau "needs to clearly adopt a different style because he has found out, just like Macron did and just like Abe did, that all this personal chemistry, cozying-up bromance stuff didn't get them anywhere," Kirkegaard says.
The star power has faded for Trudeau, the son of a former prime minister. At home, his polling lead has evaporated on the heels of a disastrous trip to India, and he now trails the main opposition party in some polls ahead of an election next year.
Abroad, a French official was at pains to play down the much-talked about bromance between Emmanuel Macron and Trudeau on display at the G-7 in Italy a year ago.
If the two men were being endlessly compared to one another last year, comparisons now are not welcome, the official said on condition of anonymity. Macron is focusing on developing his own brand, and a direct channel to Trump.
Macron began his trip to Canada by visiting Trudeau in Ottawa, and emerged with a warning for Trump. "None of us are eternal," Macron said. He later tweeted: "The American President may not mind being isolated, but neither do we mind signing a 6 country agreement if need be."
Trump responded on Twitter after the meeting of the two other leaders, which included a lengthy private dinner: "Please tell Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron that they are charging the US massive tariffs and create non-monetary barriers," he wrote. "Look forward to seeing them tomorrow."
In a follow-up tweet, Trump accused Trudeau of "being so indignant" given that Canada protects its dairy sector with high tariffs. When asked for a response to Trump's remarks, a senior Canadian official said at a press briefing in Quebec the countries could manage their differences through discussions.
Trudeau's occasional boy-scout goofiness also seems out of place in the trade fight. When British Prime Minister Theresa May, another close ally, paid him a brief visit in Ottawa last September, British officials were taken aback by what Trudeau's office suggested the two should do: kayaking, a proposal so decidedly un-British it was immediately dismissed.
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There was also a lot of back and forth over a basketball game. May's people sought repeated assurances Trudeau wouldn't embarrass the older May by shooting hoops. As it happened, he jumped at the chance to grab a ball.
The G-7 leaders were to be immersed in nature Friday and Saturday, Quebec time, 140 kilometres away from the media centre - surrounded by La Malbaie's pristine waterfront and rolling hills. It was clear whether the isolated surroundings would ease or fan tensions further.
It's Trump against the developed world
Trump's Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was painfully singled out a week ago at a gathering of G-7 finance chiefs in the Canadian ski-resort town of Whistler. Who knows how Trump, who dislikes criticism, will respond to coming under fire. Kirkegaard noted that "Trump may take it very poorly."
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow had made it clear Trump wasn't planning to woo the bloc's leaders. "International multilateral organisations are not going to determine American policy, I think the President's made that very clear," Kudlow said.
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Either way, there was the risk that it ends without the typical negotiated leaders' consensus communique. Previous summits have issued a chair's summary instead of a joint statement, which would fall to Trudeau. If the Canadian can find any measure of consensus by the end of Saturday, that will be considered a success given the low expectations. Trump planned to depart early from the summit, on Saturday morning, leaving a deputy assistant in charge for the day's remaining sessions.
"The G-7 is fundamentally a gathering of the world's most advanced economies to talk about economic challenges that we have in common," Trudeau said last week. The key to diplomacy is finding common ground, he said. That incidentally, is also the title of his 2014 autobiography.
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